Missouri defeats Vanderbilt 81-80

The Missouri Tigers, ranked 65th in the NET rankings, pulled off a stunning 81-80 upset over the 13th-ranked Vanderbilt Commodores, a team that had been averaging 81.6 points per game over their last 5 contests, including a 82-69 win over Texas A&M and a 84-76 victory at Auburn. This shocking result has real consequences for both teams' seed lines, with Vanderbilt's loss potentially dropping them from a 3-seed to a 5-seed, while Missouri's win could boost their chances of making the tournament, having now won 3 of their last 5 games, including an 86-85 thriller over Texas A&M. The Tigers' 36 points in the first period, led by Jayden Stone's 10 points, set the tone for the game, as they managed to hold off a late Vanderbilt surge, which saw the Commodores outscore them 50-45 in the second period. Missouri's recent trend of averaging 76 points per game over their last 5 contests, while allowing 79.6 points per game, made this win all the more impressive, given that they were able to outscore a high-powered Vanderbilt offense.

The game was a back-and-forth affair, with both teams trading baskets and neither able to gain a significant advantage, until the final minutes, when Missouri's Trent Pierce hit a clutch three-pointer with 2:17 remaining, giving the Tigers a 75-72 lead, which they managed to hold onto despite a late Vanderbilt push. Vanderbilt's Tyler Tanner had a game-high 27 points, including 5 assists, but it wasn't enough to overcome the Tigers' balanced attack, which saw three players score in double figures, including Stone's 19 points and 7 rebounds. The Commodores' recent form, which had seen them win 4 of their last 5 games, including a 71-68 victory over Ole Miss, made this loss all the more surprising, given that they had been outscoring their opponents by an average of 9.6 points per game over that stretch. Missouri, on the other hand, had been struggling, with a 3-2 record over their last 5 games, including a 64-90 loss at Alabama, making this win a much-needed boost to their tournament resume.

The star performers in this game were undoubtedly Stone and Tanner, who both had impressive stat lines, but it was the supporting cast that made the difference, with Missouri's T.O. Barrett adding 16 points and 5 assists, while Vanderbilt's Devin McGlockton chipped in with 13 points and 7 rebounds. However, it was the clutch shooting of Pierce, who hit 3 of 5 three-pointers, including the game-sealing shot, that ultimately decided the game. Vanderbilt's Tyler Nickel, who had been averaging 12 points per game over the last 5 contests, was held to just 11 points, on 4 of 12 shooting, which was a significant factor in the Commodores' loss. Missouri's ability to shut down Nickel, while also containing Tanner, was a key factor in their win, given that Vanderbilt's offense had been relying heavily on those two players in recent games.

The CHD Scout prediction had Vanderbilt winning by 10.5 points, but that was incorrect, as Missouri's high-powered offense, which had been averaging 76 points per game over their last 5 contests, was able to keep pace with the Commodores' attack.

The prediction was wrong because it underestimated the ability of Missouri's offense to keep up with Vanderbilt's, as well as the Tigers' ability to shut down the Commodores' supporting cast. The model likely didn't account for the fact that Missouri had been playing well at home, with a 12-2 record, and that they had the firepower to keep up with Vanderbilt's high-scoring offense. Additionally, the model may have overestimated Vanderbilt's defense, which had been allowing an average of 72 points per game over their last 5 contests, but was unable to contain Missouri's balanced attack.

The win for Missouri has real consequences for their tournament picture, as it boosts their chances of making the field, given that they now have a 18-8 record, and have won 3 of their last 5 games. Vanderbilt, on the other hand, will likely drop in the rankings, given that they had been considered a lock for the tournament, but now have a 21-5 record, and have lost 2 of their last 5 games. The Commodores' loss also raises questions about their ability to perform under pressure, given that they had been outscored by 3.6 points per game over their last 5 contests, despite their high-powered offense.

The loss for Vanderbilt is a significant blow to their tournament resume, given that they had been considered a top-3 seed, but now may drop to a 5-seed, or even lower. Missouri, on the other hand, has played themselves into the tournament conversation, given that they now have a 18-8 record, and have won 3 of their last 5 games, including this upset over Vanderbilt. The Tigers' win also gives them a much-needed boost in the NET rankings, which could help them secure a spot in the tournament. Vanderbilt, on the other hand, must regroup and refocus, given that they have a tough schedule ahead of them, and can't afford to drop many more games if they want to secure a high seed in the tournament.

The game was a thrilling back-and-forth affair, with both teams giving it their all, but in the end, it was Missouri's balanced attack, and their ability to shut down Vanderbilt's supporting cast, that made the difference. The Tigers' win is a significant upset, given that Vanderbilt had been considered one of the top teams in the country, but it's a reflection of the strength of the Missouri program, and their ability to compete with anyone. The Commodores, on the other hand, must regroup and refocus, given that they have a tough schedule ahead of them, and can't afford to drop many more games if they want to secure a high seed in the tournament. Missouri's win has real consequences for the tournament picture, given that it boosts their chances of making the field, and drops Vanderbilt's seed line, making this game a crucial moment in the season.