The Washington State Cougars visit the Loyola Marymount Lions at Gersten Pavilion on February 25, a matchup that holds significant implications for the West Coast Conference standings. As the regular season draws to a close, both teams are seeking to bolster their positioning for the conference tournament, where they will be vying for the automatic bid to the NCAA Tournament. With neither team in contention for an at-large bid, the conference tournament represents their sole path to postseason play, elevating the importance of every remaining game.
This contest pits two evenly matched teams against each other, with the outcome likely to be decided by small margins. The model prediction suggests a narrow victory for Loyola Marymount, but recent form indicates that both WSU and LMU are capable of producing strong performances. WSU's recent struggles and LMU's modest uptick in form only add to the intrigue, as both teams seek to gain momentum heading into the conference tournament. The outcome of this game will have a direct impact on the teams' seeding and confidence heading into the tournament, making this a critical matchup with lasting implications for their postseason aspirations.
Averaging 15.6 points per game, has been the team's leading scorer, with his contributions crucial to Washington State's overall performance. The team's record stands at 12-16, with a 7-9 mark in the WCC, and a NET ranking of 130. His 2.3 assists per game have also been vital in setting up scoring opportunities for teammates, including , who is averaging 11.3 points and 5.4 rebounds per game. With contributing 11.1 points per game, the team has had a relatively balanced offense, but their recent form has been inconsistent.
The team's last five games have yielded just one win, a 87-70 victory over Pacific, with losses to Saint Mary's, Gonzaga, Santa Clara, and Oregon State. 's 10.1 points and 5.5 rebounds per game have been a steady presence, while Tomas Thrastarson's 9.9 points and 4.4 rebounds per game have provided additional scoring punch. His 45% three-point shooting has been a notable aspect of the team's offense, but overall, the team's struggles against top-tier opponents, with a 0-5 record in Quad 1 games, have hindered their progress, and they will look to bounce back against Loyola Marymount.
Averaging 14.6 points per game, has been a crucial part of Loyola Marymount's offense, with his scoring ability complemented by 's 14.1 points per game. His 1.5 assists per game also demonstrate Amey Jr.'s ability to create for his teammates. The team's recent form has been mixed, with wins over San Diego and San Francisco in their last five games, but also losses to Pepperdine and Pacific. With a record of 14-15, Loyola Marymount is looking to build momentum heading into this game.
The team's leading scorer, supported by 's all-around game, has been instrumental in their successes, as Shelley's 6.6 rebounds per game lead the team. His 2.6 assists per game also highlight his role as a playmaker. 's 3.8 assists per game and 's 5.3 rebounds per game have also been key to Loyola Marymount's performance, with McBride's rebounding ability providing a boost to the team's frontcourt. As Loyola Marymount faces Washington State, these players will be crucial in determining the outcome of the game.
Key Matchups
The matchup between Jalen Shelley and Rihards Vavers will be pivotal in determining the outcome of this game. Shelley's ability to dominate the glass, averaging 6.6 rebounds per game, will be tested by Vavers's athleticism and agility. If Vavers can limit Shelley's rebounding opportunities and prevent him from getting easy put-backs, it could significantly disrupt Loyola Marymount's offense. On the other hand, if Shelley can outmuscle Vavers and control the paint, it could give Loyola Marymount a significant advantage on the boards and in the paint.
The contrast in playing styles between Shelley and Vavers makes this matchup particularly intriguing. Shelley's physicality and rebounding prowess will be pitted against Vavers's quickness and scoring ability. If Vavers can use his agility to stay in front of Shelley and prevent him from getting easy baskets, it could force Loyola Marymount to rely more heavily on its perimeter shooting. Conversely, if Shelley can use his strength to overpower Vavers, it could open up scoring opportunities for himself and his teammates. The outcome of this individual battle will have a significant impact on the overall flow of the game.
CHD Scout Prediction
Washington State
73
Loyola Marymount
77
The model's prediction of a 77-73 Loyola Marymount victory, with a 63.3% win probability, aligns with my assessment of the game. I agree with the model's forecast, as Washington State's lower NET ranking of 130, compared to Loyola Marymount's 164, suggests that the Cougars possess a slight edge in terms of overall strength, which should be sufficient to overcome the Lions on the road, particularly given the relatively narrow margin of the predicted outcome.
Tournament Stakes
As the season winds down, both Washington State and Loyola Marymount find themselves in a similar predicament, with their only hope for postseason play hinging on a conference tournament title. A win for either team would not only bolster their chances of securing a favorable seed in the West Coast Conference tournament, but also provide a much-needed boost to their program's trajectory. With both teams sitting outside of the top tier in the conference standings, this Quad 3 matchup takes on added significance, as a victory would help to separate the winner from the pack and potentially set them up for a more manageable tournament draw. Ultimately, the outcome of this game will be a crucial step in determining which team will be best positioned to make a run in the conference tournament, and which will be left on the outside looking in, making this a must-win for both programs, and a stark reminder that in the world of mid-major college basketball, a single loss can be the difference between relevance and irrelevance.