The West Virginia Mountaineers and Oklahoma State Cowboys are set to face off on February 24 at Gallagher-Iba Arena, a matchup that holds significant implications in the Big 12 conference race. As the regular season draws to a close, both teams are looking to bolster their positioning for the conference tournament, their only viable path to postseason play. With West Virginia sitting at 7-7 in conference play and Oklahoma State at 4-10, the margin between a favorable tournament seed and a more daunting draw is slim, making this game a crucial one for both squads.
The Mountaineers and Cowboys enter this contest with recent form that underscores the fine line between success and struggle in the competitive Big 12. West Virginia has gone 2-3 over their last five games, while Oklahoma State is seeking to snap a five-game losing streak. The model prediction suggests a tightly contested affair, with the Mountaineers holding a narrow edge in terms of win probability. As WVU and OSU take to the court, the outcome will have a direct impact on their conference tournament prospects, making this a high-stakes matchup with significant implications for both teams' postseason aspirations.
Averaging 15.4 points per game, the team's leading scorer is backed by a supporting cast that includes , who contributes 11.3 points per game. With his 45% three-point shooting, has been a crucial factor in West Virginia's offense, while Brenen Lorient's 5.0 rebounds per game have helped the team control the boards. The team's recent form has been inconsistent, with losses to TCU and Utah in their last two games, including a 54-60 defeat at TCU on February 21 and a 56-61 loss versus Utah on February 18.
His 2.9 assists per game make a vital playmaker for West Virginia, and his ability to set up teammates like and has been essential. Chance Moore's 5.0 rebounds per game and 9.8 points per game have been a significant boost to the team, and Treysen Eaglestaff's 4.6 rebounds per game have helped West Virginia stay competitive on the glass. With a record of 16-11 and a NET ranking of 63, the team will look to bounce back from their recent losses when they face Oklahoma State, having previously secured wins in two of their last five games, including a 74-67 victory at UCF on February 14 and a 59-54 win at Cincinnati on February 5.
Averaging 17.0 points per game, the team's leading scorer is backed by a supporting cast that includes , whose 6.0 rebounds per game lead the team. His 14.5 points per game are complemented by 's all-around skills, with 12.0 points, 3.1 rebounds, and 1.9 assists per game. With a record of 16-11 and a NET ranking of 83, Oklahoma State enters this matchup having struggled in recent games, including losses to Colorado, Kansas, and TCU.
The team's recent form has been marked by a string of losses, including a 69-83 defeat at Colorado and a 69-81 loss to Kansas, with 's 3.9 assists per game and 's 4.7 rebounds per game providing some bright spots. His 45% three-point shooting is not a notable aspect of the team's performance, as no player has such a statistic, but the team will look to 's scoring ability and Parsa Fallah's rebounding to turn their fortunes around against West Virginia. With a 4-10 record in the Big 12, Oklahoma State will need to capitalize on their home-court advantage to secure a much-needed win.
Key Matchups
The matchup between West Virginia's Brenen Lorient and Oklahoma State's Parsa Fallah will be pivotal in determining the outcome of this game. Lorient's ability to score and rebound will be tested by Fallah's strong all-around game, particularly his rebounding prowess. If Fallah can contain Lorient on the glass and limit his scoring opportunities, it could significantly impact West Virginia's overall offense.
Fallah's size and athleticism give him an advantage in the paint, but Lorient's agility and court vision make him a formidable opponent. If Lorient can use his quickness to evade Fallah and create scoring chances, it could put pressure on the Oklahoma State defense and open up opportunities for his teammates. Conversely, if Fallah can assert his dominance in the paint, it could stifle West Virginia's attack and give the Cowboys a significant advantage. The outcome of this individual battle will have far-reaching implications for the game's overall trajectory.
CHD Scout Prediction
West Virginia
74
Oklahoma State
74
Based on the model's numbers, which suggest a near-even matchup with West Virginia holding a slight 50.1% win probability, I disagree with the model's implication of a toss-up game and instead predict that West Virginia will win. The primary reason for this prediction is the disparity in the teams' NET rankings, with West Virginia holding a significant advantage at #63 compared to Oklahoma State's #83, indicating a higher level of performance against their respective schedules, which I believe will be the decisive factor in this matchup.
Tournament Stakes
As the season enters its final stretch, both West Virginia and Oklahoma State are jockeying for position in the Big 12 standings, with their conference tournament prospects hanging in the balance. A win for either team would not only bolster their chances of securing a favorable seed in the conference tournament, but also inject momentum into their programs as they look to make a deep postseason run. With both teams sitting at 16-11, the outcome of this Quad 2 matchup will have significant implications for their conference tournament positioning, and by extension, their only viable path to the NCAA Tournament - winning the automatic bid. The trajectory of each program is also at stake, as a strong finish to the season could set the tone for future success, and with neither team boasting an impressive resume, highlighted by West Virginia's 4-7 Quad 1 record and Oklahoma State's 1-8 mark against top-tier opponents, the importance of this game cannot be overstated: the loser will be left scrambling to regain traction in a conference where only one team will ultimately emerge victorious.