The Western Michigan Broncos will face off against the Bowling Green State Falcons on February 24 at the Stroh Center, a matchup that pits two Mid-American Conference teams with differing trajectories. Western Michigan, or WMU, has struggled to find consistency, while Bowling Green, or BGSU, has shown flashes of promise despite an uneven record. This game matters for both teams as they jockey for position in the conference standings, with the MAC tournament auto-bid representing their only viable path to postseason play.
As the heavy favorite, BGSU will look to bounce back from a recent loss and assert its dominance over a WMU team that has faced significant challenges this season. However, WMU has shown an ability to compete in certain areas, and an upset would require a strong performance in those facets. For BGSU, a win would help to validate its standing in the conference, but the team still needs to prove it can consistently perform at a high level, particularly against teams it is expected to beat. Despite the predicted outcome, this matchup has the potential to be more competitive than expected, with WMU seeking to pull off a surprise and BGSU looking to avoid a letdown.
Averaging 14.8 points per game, has been the team's leading scorer, with his ability to create shots being a crucial aspect of Western Michigan's offense. The team's recent form has been inconsistent, with losses in four of their last five games, including a 70-83 defeat at Central Michigan and a 73-90 loss versus Akron. His 2.0 assists per game have also been valuable in setting up teammates, such as Jalen Griffith, who has been contributing 12.1 points per game.
With 's 6.2 rebounds per game leading the team, Western Michigan has had some success on the boards, but overall, the team's 9-18 record and 3-11 mark in the MAC reflect their struggles. 's 7.9 points per game and 's 7.7 points per game have provided some scoring depth, but the team's lack of consistency has hindered their ability to string together wins, as evidenced by their 1-7 record in Quad 3 games. His 45% three-point shooting is not a statistic available for any of the mentioned players, but the team will need to find ways to improve their shooting to compete with Bowling Green.
Averaging 19.6 points per game, has been the team's leading scorer, and his 5.0 assists per game have been crucial in guiding the offense. The team's recent form has been inconsistent, with losses to Miami (OH) and Kent State in their last two games, but a win over Toledo on February 14 suggests they are capable of beating strong Mid-American Conference opponents. His 4.6 rebounds per game have also been a significant contribution, and with averaging 7.0 rebounds per game, the team has a solid presence in the paint.
With a 16-12 overall record, the Falcons have struggled against top-tier opponents, as evidenced by their 0-1 record in Quad 1 games and 1-3 record in Quad 2 games. 's 11.3 points per game and 's 11.2 points per game have provided additional scoring punch, while 's 1.5 assists per game have helped to facilitate the offense. His 45% three-point shooting has been a notable aspect of Javontae Campbell's game, and Sam Towns' ability to score 12.0 points per game has made him a valuable asset to the team.
Key Matchups
The matchup between Western Michigan's Jayden Brewer and Bowling Green's Sam Towns will be pivotal in determining the outcome of this game. Brewer's ability to score and rebound will be tested by Towns, who boasts a significant advantage on the glass. Towns's 7.0 rebounds per game could allow Bowling Green to control the tempo and limit Western Michigan's second-chance opportunities. If Brewer can find a way to neutralize Towns's rebounding edge, it could swing the game in Western Michigan's favor.
Brewer's scoring average of 12.0 points per game will also be crucial in this matchup, as he will need to find ways to score against Towns's defensive presence. Towns's relatively low assist numbers suggest that he may not be as involved in Bowling Green's offense, allowing him to focus on defending Brewer. The outcome of this individual battle will have significant implications for the team's overall performance, and the winner of this matchup may ultimately decide the game's outcome.
CHD Scout Prediction
Western Michigan
70
Bowling Green
82
Based on the data, the model predicts a decisive 12-point victory for Bowling Green, with an 84.6% win probability. I agree with this assessment, as the significant disparity in NET rankings between the two teams suggests a substantial gap in overall team quality. Specifically, Western Michigan's poor record and low NET ranking of 294 indicate a lack of competitiveness against mid-tier teams like Bowling Green, which has a respectable NET ranking of 149, and I believe this disparity will ultimately prove too great for Western Michigan to overcome, leading to a Bowling Green win.
Tournament Stakes
As the MAC conference schedule unfolds, both Western Michigan and Bowling Green are keenly aware that their only viable path to postseason play lies in winning the conference tournament. With Western Michigan sitting near the bottom of the conference standings, a win on the road against Bowling Green would be a significant upset, potentially altering their trajectory and seeding in the conference tournament. Meanwhile, Bowling Green, with a stronger record, is looking to solidify its position in the upper echelon of the conference, aiming to secure a more favorable draw in the tournament. Given the context of this Quad 3 game for Western Michigan and a Quad 4 outing for Bowling Green, the outcome will have tangible implications for their conference tournament positioning, and ultimately, the fate of their seasons - and it's clear that a loss for Western Michigan would all but extinguish the faint glimmer of hope that still remains for their postseason aspirations.