The Wright State Raiders, currently sitting at 13-5 in the Horizon League, face off against the Purdue Fort Wayne Mastodons, who hold a 10-8 record in the same conference, at Memorial Coliseum in Indiana on February 25. This matchup carries significant implications for the conference race, as both teams aim to solidify their positioning in the standings. With Wright State holding a slight edge, a win for the Raiders would help maintain their footing, while a victory for the Mastodons would inject new life into their pursuit of a top seed in the conference tournament.
As the regular season draws to a close, the margins between teams in the Horizon League have grown increasingly slim, and this contest is no exception. The model prediction suggests a narrow Wright State victory, 79-72, with the Raiders holding a 71.0% win probability. However, recent form indicates that both teams are capable of producing inconsistent results, with Wright State going 3-2 in their last five outings and Purdue Fort Wayne posting a 2-3 record over the same span. The outcome of this game will have a direct impact on the conference standings, and with both teams reliant on winning the Horizon League tournament to secure a postseason berth, the stakes are elevated, making this a crucial matchup to watch.
Averaging 14.0 points per game, has been a crucial component of Wright State's offense, while his 2.7 rebounds per game and 2.0 assists per game have also contributed to the team's overall performance. With a record of 18-11, including 13-5 in the Horizon League, Wright State is looking to build on its recent form, which has seen the team go 3-2 in its last five games, including an 85-73 win over IU Indianapolis and a 102-90 victory at Cleveland State. His 14.0 points per game are complemented by 's 12.3 points per game, as the team's leading scorers have driven the offense.
The team's leading rebounder, with 6.7 rebounds per game, is , whose all-around game has been vital to Wright State's success, including his 11.7 points per game and 1.9 assists per game. 's 9.6 points per game and 2.7 rebounds per game have also been important, while has chipped in with 10.0 points per game and 2.0 rebounds per game, helping the team to a 73-68 win over Purdue Fort Wayne in their last meeting, a result they will look to replicate in this game. With their recent form and key players performing well, Wright State will be looking to secure another win against Purdue Fort Wayne.
Averaging 20.7 points per game, is the team's leading scorer, and his presence will be crucial in Purdue Fort Wayne's matchup against Wright State. The team's recent form has been inconsistent, with a 92-86 win at Cleveland State on February 22, but also losses to Northern Kentucky and Green Bay in the past two weeks. His 3.7 rebounds per game are also a significant contribution, and Corey Hadnot II will need to be at his best to lead Purdue Fort Wayne to a win. With 's 14.9 points per game, the team has a strong secondary scoring option, and his 3.6 rebounds per game make him a versatile threat.
The team's 15-13 record, including a 10-8 mark in the Horizon League, is a testament to the contributions of players like , who is averaging 13.6 points per game, and , who is scoring 8.2 points per game. His 45% three-point shooting is not mentioned in the data, but DeAndre Craig Jr.'s overall scoring ability will be important in this game. 's 4.4 rebounds per game are also a key factor, as Purdue Fort Wayne looks to contain Wright State's offense and come out on top. With a NET ranking of 253, Purdue Fort Wayne will need to pull off an upset to beat Wright State, and players like Mikale Stevenson and Corey Hadnot II will need to have strong games to make that happen.
Key Matchups
The matchup between Wright State's Michael Imariagbe and Purdue Fort Wayne's DeAndre Craig Jr. will be a pivotal battle in this game. Imariagbe's ability to control the boards, averaging 6.7 rebounds per game, will be tested by Craig Jr.'s versatility, who contributes 3.3 rebounds per game while also being a significant scoring threat. If Imariagbe can outmuscle Craig Jr. on the glass, it could limit Purdue Fort Wayne's second-chance opportunities and give Wright State a significant advantage.
The contrast in playing styles between Imariagbe and Craig Jr. makes this matchup particularly intriguing. Imariagbe's more traditional, post-up game will be matched against Craig Jr.'s likely more agile, perimeter-oriented approach. If Craig Jr. can use his quickness to stay in front of Imariagbe, it could neutralize Wright State's interior scoring threat and force them to rely on outside shooting. Conversely, if Imariagbe can establish a strong post presence, it could draw Craig Jr. into foul trouble, limiting his effectiveness on both ends of the floor.
CHD Scout Prediction
Wright State
79
Purdue Fort Wayne
72
Based on the data, the model predicts a Wright State victory, 79-72, with a 71.0% win probability. I agree with this assessment, as Wright State's significantly higher NET ranking suggests a notable disparity in team strength. Specifically, the 107-point difference in NET rankings between Wright State and Purdue Fort Wayne is a key indicator that Wright State's overall performance and schedule strength have been more impressive, which I believe will give them the edge they need to secure a win on the road.
Tournament Stakes
As the season enters its final stretch, both Wright State and Purdue Fort Wayne are keenly aware that their only path to the NCAA Tournament is by winning the Horizon League conference tournament. With Wright State currently sitting in a stronger position in the conference standings, a win would help solidify their chances of securing a favorable seed in the tournament, potentially avoiding a first-round matchup against a lower-seeded team. Conversely, Purdue Fort Wayne needs a win to bolster their conference tournament positioning and keep their postseason hopes alive, as a loss would further complicate their already tenuous trajectory. Given the context of this Quad 3 game for Purdue Fort Wayne and a Quad 4 game for Wright State, the outcome will have significant implications for each team's program trajectory, and ultimately, Wright State's inability to capitalize on this opportunity would be a stark reminder that their margin for error is perilously thin.