The University of Wyoming Cowboys travel to ExtraMile Arena on February 24 to face the Boise State University Broncos in a pivotal Mountain West conference matchup. With both teams vying for positioning in the conference standings, this game holds significant implications for their postseason prospects. As neither Wyoming nor Boise State is in contention for an at-large NCAA Tournament bid, their focus shifts to enhancing their chances of securing the Mountain West's automatic bid. The Cowboys and Broncos, respectively, will look to capitalize on this opportunity to bolster their conference tournament seeding and gain momentum heading into the final stretch of the regular season.
The margin between these two evenly matched teams is razor-thin, with the model predicting a narrow 77-74 victory for the Broncos. Given their recent form, with Wyoming going 2-3 and Boise State posting a 3-2 record over their last five games, it is clear that both teams are capable of producing strong performances. As the Cowboys and Broncos clash, the outcome will hinge on their ability to execute and make crucial plays down the stretch. With the conference tournament looming, this game serves as a critical litmus test for both teams, offering a glimpse into their potential for a deep postseason run.
With a record of 15-12, including 6-10 in the Mountain West conference, Wyoming's season has been marked by inconsistency. Averaging 14.7 points per game, has been the team's leading scorer, while his 3.6 assists per game have also been crucial in guiding the offense. The team's recent form has seen them secure wins in two of their last five games, including a 70-65 victory at Grand Canyon and a 92-82 win over Fresno State, with 's 12.8 points per game and 4.5 rebounds per game playing a significant role in these successes.
His 45% three-point shooting has been a valuable asset, and 's all-around contributions, including 10.2 points per game, 5.1 rebounds per game, and 2.9 assists per game, have been essential to Wyoming's performances. 's 10.1 points per game have also been important, while Gavin Gores's 6.5 points per game and 3.5 rebounds per game have provided additional support. As Wyoming heads into the game against Boise State, the team will be looking to build on their recent wins and improve their conference record, with Leland Walker, Nasir Meyer, and Khaden Bennett likely to be key figures in their efforts.
Averaging 13.8 points per game, has been a crucial component of Boise State's offense, with his scoring prowess complemented by 5.1 rebounds per game. The team's leading scorer, however, has not been the only key contributor, as ' 12.2 points per game and 3.2 assists per game have provided a significant boost. His 2.4 rebounds per game may not be as impressive, but Andrews' overall impact on the team's performance cannot be overstated. With a record of 16-11, including 8-8 in the Mountain West conference, Boise State has shown resilience in the face of challenging opponents.
In recent games, Boise State has experienced a mix of results, including an 84-69 win over San José State and losses to Utah State and UNLV. 's 11.7 points per game and 4.8 rebounds per game have been essential to the team's success, while 's 11.8 points per game have provided additional scoring depth. Meanwhile, 's 8.6 points per game and 3.3 rebounds per game have rounded out the team's balanced attack. His 45% three-point shooting is not mentioned in the data, so it is not relevant to this analysis. With a NET ranking of 62, Boise State will look to capitalize on its home-court advantage against Wyoming.
Key Matchups
The matchup between Wyoming's Leland Walker and Boise State's Dylan Andrews will be pivotal in determining the outcome of this game. As the primary ball handlers for their respective teams, Walker and Andrews will be responsible for creating scoring opportunities and controlling the tempo of the game. Walker's ability to balance scoring and playmaking, as evidenced by his 14.7 points and 3.6 assists per game, will be tested by Andrews's defensive prowess. If Walker can outmaneuver Andrews and find open teammates or scoring lanes, Wyoming's offense could gain a significant advantage.
Andrews, on the other hand, will need to use his quickness and agility to stay in front of Walker and limit his scoring opportunities. If Andrews can contain Walker and force him into difficult shots or turnovers, Boise State's defense will be well-positioned to stifle Wyoming's attack. The winner of this head-to-head battle will likely have a significant impact on the game's outcome, as the team that can dictate the pace and create scoring chances will have a distinct advantage.
CHD Scout Prediction
Wyoming
74
Boise State
77
Based on the model's prediction of Boise State 77-74 with a 58.3% win probability, I agree that Boise State will emerge victorious. The primary reason for this pick is the significant disparity in the teams' NET rankings, with Boise State holding a substantial advantage at #62 compared to Wyoming's #97. This suggests that Boise State has performed more consistently against a stronger schedule, which I believe will give them the edge they need to secure a win at home against the Cowboys.
Tournament Stakes
As the season enters its final stretch, this matchup holds significant implications for both teams' conference tournament positioning. A win for Boise State would bolster their standing in the Mountain West, potentially solidifying a top-five seed and a more favorable draw in the conference tournament, while a loss could jeopardize their chances of avoiding the tournament's play-in round. For Wyoming, a road victory would be a crucial Quad 1 win, not only boosting their confidence but also enhancing their prospects of securing a more advantageous seed in the conference tournament, where they'll need to make a deep run to extend their season. With both teams squarely focused on winning the Mountain West's auto-bid, the stakes are clear: the winner will take a crucial step towards Las Vegas and a potential championship, while the loser will face an increasingly daunting path to the title, and ultimately, Wyoming's inability to capitalize on this opportunity will only serve to underscore the program's ongoing struggle to transcend its mid-pack trajectory.