In a closely contested matchup at Hinkle Fieldhouse, Butler emerged victorious over Xavier, 80-75, by a margin of five points. The Bulldogs' 47-point first half set the tone for a hard-fought battle, but the Musketeers' 47-point second half kept the outcome in doubt until the final buzzer. Ultimately, Butler's strong defensive effort and efficient offense proved decisive.
The game's margin of separation was indeed razor-thin, with Butler's NET ranking of 80 contrasting with Xavier's NET ranking of 97. The Bulldogs' 47-28 first-half lead gave them a significant cushion, but the Musketeers' second-half surge narrowed the gap, highlighting the intense competition between these two programs.
Michael Ajayi's 24-point performance was a driving force behind Butler's victory, as he also secured nine rebounds and contributed two assists, while displaying a strong defensive presence with a block. His shooting efficiency was somewhat inconsistent, converting 11 of 21 field goal attempts, including a single three-pointer, and struggling with free throws, making only one of four attempts.
Yohan Traore and Finley Bizjack also made significant contributions to Butler's win. Traore dominated the free throw line, converting 11 of 13 attempts to tally 21 points, with all five of his field goal attempts finding the mark. Bizjack's 18 points were supported by solid court vision, with two assists, and a strong shooting performance from the charity stripe, making nine of 10 free throws.
Tre Carroll's 24 points were a bright spot for Xavier, but ultimately proved not quite enough to propel his team to victory. His seven rebounds and four assists showcased his well-rounded play, but his shooting percentages, while respectable, did not quite match the level of his scoring output. Carroll's inability to consistently convert from beyond the arc, finishing 4-7 from three, was a recurring theme throughout the game.
Malik Messina-Moore's 20 points were bolstered by a strong performance at the free-throw line, where he converted all but one of his attempts. However, his shooting from the field and beyond the arc left much to be desired, as he struggled to find his rhythm and was held to 7-12 from the field and 2-6 from three. Jovan Milicevic's 10 points were a modest contribution, but his limited rebounding and assist totals kept him from making a significant impact on the game.
The supporting casts for both teams largely remained within established season averages, with no notable deviations from their established roles.
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Final
While the pre-game prediction of a four-point Butler victory was ultimately correct, the margin of victory was only slightly wider than anticipated. In the end, it was a five-point difference that decided the game in favor of the Bulldogs.
The outcome can be attributed to two key factors: Butler's ability to maintain a consistent defensive presence in the paint, as evidenced by their relatively high OREB rate compared to their season average. This allowed them to limit Xavier's second-chance opportunities and maintain possession. Additionally, Butler's defense effectively neutralized Xavier's advantage in three-point shooting, holding them to a lower percentage than their season average. This defensive effort, combined with a strong team performance on the glass, ultimately proved decisive in Butler's narrow victory.
Butler's victory in this Quad 3 game significantly boosts its NCAA Tournament resume, as it now boasts a respectable 2-7 record against Quad 1 opponents and a 2-5 mark against Quad 2 opponents, with a NET ranking of #80. This performance will likely earn the Bulldogs a low-to-mid double-digit seed in the NCAA Tournament. Conversely, Xavier's loss in a Quad 2 game drops it to 0-9 against Quad 1 opponents and 3-5 against Quad 2 opponents, with a NET ranking of #97. This result will likely place the Musketeers on the bubble, fighting for a possible at-large bid, and potentially as a 12-seed or lower. The bubble is now one loss thicker for Xavier, but a win here does not change the fact that the Musketeers still need a lot more help to secure a safe spot in the NCAA Tournament.