The Detroit Mercy Titans, ranked 258 in the NET rankings, pulled off a stunning 76-70 upset over the Youngstown State Penguins, ranked 204, at Calihan Hall, defying the 5.3-point margin predicted by CHD Scout in favor of the Penguins. This outcome not only shook the foundation of the teams' current standings but also raised questions about the Penguins' legitimacy as a potential tournament contender, having lost 3 of their last 5 games, including a recent 64-65 loss to Milwaukee. The Titans, on the other hand, have been averaging 78.6 points per game over their last 5 outings, with a 3-2 record in that stretch, including a notable 90-77 win over Northern Kentucky. The Penguins, who had been outscoring their opponents by an average of 7 points over their last 5 games, were expected to dominate, but the Titans had other plans, capitalizing on the Penguins' 37% shooting from the field in the first half to take a 37-29 lead into the break.
As the game progressed, it became clear that the Titans' strategy was to contain the Penguins' high-scoring offense, which had been averaging 78.2 points per game over their last 5 outings. The Titans' defense held the Penguins to just 29 points in the first half, a significant departure from their average, and although the Penguins would go on to score 41 points in the second half, the Titans' offense, led by Tyler Spratt's 15 points and 9 rebounds, was able to keep pace, ultimately securing the 6-point victory. The Penguins' Tae Blackshear did his best to keep his team in the game, scoring 22 points, but it wasn't enough to overcome the Titans' balanced attack, which saw three players score in double figures, including London Maiden with 13 points and Orlando Lovejoy with 12 points. The Titans' win marked their 4th quadrant 4 victory of the season, a significant boost to their tournament resume.
The Titans' victory was not just about the numbers, however, as several players made key contributions that didn't show up in the box score. Tyler Spratt, for example, was instrumental in shutting down the Penguins' top scorers, using his quick feet and anticipation to intercept passes and disrupt the Penguins' offense. Meanwhile, London Maiden provided a spark off the bench, hitting several crucial shots to stretch the Titans' lead in the second half. On the other hand, the Penguins' Bryson Dawkins, who had been averaging 18 points per game over his last 5 outings, was held to just 20 points, and his 5 rebounds were not enough to make up for the team's lackluster defensive effort. The Penguins' Cris Carroll, who had been shooting 42% from three over his last 5 games, was just 1-for-5 from beyond the arc, a significant drop-off that hurt the Penguins' chances of coming back.
The CHD Scout prediction, which had favored the Penguins by 5.3 points, was off the mark, and it's clear that the model underestimated the Titans' ability to contain the Penguins' offense. The Penguins had been averaging 71.2 points allowed per game over their last 5 outings, but the Titans were able to hold them to just 70 points, a reflection of their defensive prowess. The Titans' recent form, which had seen them win 3 of their last 5 games, including a 76-63 win over Milwaukee, suggested that they were a team on the rise, and their performance against the Penguins only reinforced that notion. The Penguins, on the other hand, had been trending in the opposite direction, having lost 2 of their last 5 games, including a 66-72 loss to Robert Morris.
CHD Scout Report Card
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The disparity between the predicted and actual scores can be attributed to the Titans' unexpected defensive performance, which limited the Penguins to just 37% shooting from the field. The model had likely anticipated a higher-scoring affair, given the Penguins' recent form, but the Titans' defense was able to disrupt their opponent's rhythm and create turnovers, ultimately leading to the upset. The Titans' ability to adapt and adjust their strategy mid-game also played a significant role in their victory, as they were able to exploit the Penguins' weaknesses and capitalize on their mistakes. The Penguins, on the other hand, were unable to adjust to the Titans' defensive scheme, and their offense suffered as a result.
The implications of this upset are significant, particularly for the Penguins, who had been hovering around the bubble in terms of tournament contention. With this loss, they drop to 13-14 on the season, and their NET ranking of 204 makes it increasingly unlikely that they will receive an at-large bid. The Titans, on the other hand, improve to 12-13, and while they are still a long shot to make the tournament, this win gives them a much-needed boost in terms of momentum and confidence. The Penguins' recent trend of averaging 78.2 points per game over their last 5 outings must continue if they hope to stay in the tournament conversation, but for now, they are on the outside looking in.
The win for the Titans, while not enough to propel them into the tournament conversation just yet, does give them a significant boost in terms of their resume. The 6-point victory over the Penguins, a quadrant 4 opponent, is a notable addition to their portfolio, and it will be interesting to see how the selection committee views this win when evaluating the Titans' tournament worthiness. The Penguins, on the other hand, must regroup and refocus if they hope to stay in the tournament picture. With a current NET ranking of 204, they must win out and hope for some help from other teams in order to sneak into the tournament. The Titans, meanwhile, want to build on this momentum, with their next game against a quadrant 3 opponent, a win which could further bolster their tournament resume. For now, the Titans' 12-13 record and 258 NET ranking make them a long shot, but this win has at least given them a glimmer of hope, and they want to capitalize on this momentum in their remaining games.