The California Baptist Lancers, now simply CBU, face off against the Kansas Jayhawks, or Kansas, in a pivotal matchup at Viejas Arena, a neutral site, on March 20. This game holds significant implications for both teams, particularly in terms of conference race and postseason positioning. For CBU, a win would be a substantial upset, but their focus remains on the Western Athletic Conference tournament, their only path to the NCAA Tournament. Meanwhile, Kansas is looking to bolster its resume as a projected NCAA Tournament team, and a victory would help solidify their standing.
As these two teams clash, the small margins that separate evenly matched opponents will be on full display. CBU enters the game on a five-game win streak, while Kansas has struggled of late, going 2-3 in their last five contests, including a disappointing loss to Houston. The model prediction suggests a closely contested affair, with CBU holding a narrow 51.1% win probability. With the Jayhawks seeking to rebound from their recent slump and CBU looking to pull off a major upset, this game promises to be an intriguing matchup, one that will test the mettle of both teams and provide a glimpse into their postseason potential.
Averaging 23.2 points per game, the team's leading scorer is backed by a strong supporting cast, with his 3.7 rebounds and 3.2 assists per game making him a versatile threat. The team's recent form has been impressive, with wins in their last five games, including a 63-61 victory at Utah Valley and an 86-72 win against Utah Tech. His 45% three-point shooting has been a key factor in the team's success, and with contributing 12.7 points and 4.8 rebounds per game, the team has a solid foundation.
With a 25-8 record, the team is looking to build on their recent momentum, and 's 9.3 points and 3.1 rebounds per game have been a key factor in their success. His ability to score from the perimeter has been complemented by 's 6.1 points and 5.9 rebounds per game, and 's 5.9 points and 3.3 rebounds per game have provided a spark off the bench. The team's strong record in Quad 4 games, with 18 wins and no losses, is a testament to their ability to take care of business against lower-tier opponents, and they will look to carry this momentum into their game against Kansas.
Averaging 19.5 points per game, has been crucial to Kansas's success, with his scoring ability helping the team secure key victories. The team's leading scorer, backed by 's 13.7 points per game, has propelled Kansas to a 23-10 overall record and a 12-6 mark in the Big 12 conference. His 45% three-point shooting has been a significant factor in the team's offense, and with 's 8.9 rebounds per game, Kansas has been able to control the boards in many of their matchups.
With a 9-9 record against Quad 1 opponents, Kansas has shown they can compete with the best teams, and 's 5.1 assists per game have been vital in facilitating the team's offense. In their last five games, Kansas has experienced mixed results, including a 78-73 win over TCU and a 104-85 victory over Kansas State, but also losses to Houston, Arizona State, and Arizona. 's 6.0 rebounds per game have provided additional support on the glass, and his 8.2 points per game have been a welcome addition to the team's scoring efforts, as Kansas looks to bounce back from their recent losses against California Baptist.
Key Matchups
The pivotal matchup in this contest will be between California Baptist's and Kansas's Darryn Peterson. As the primary scoring threats for their respective teams, the outcome of this individual battle will have a significant impact on the game's overall trajectory. Daniels Jr.'s ability to create for himself and others, as evidenced by his 3.2 assists per game, will be tested by Peterson's defensive capabilities. Conversely, Peterson's scoring prowess will push Daniels Jr. to elevate his defensive game, potentially altering the tone of the contest.
The winner of this head-to-head duel will likely gain the upper hand for their team, as both players are capable of taking over the game on the offensive end. If Daniels Jr. can outmaneuver Peterson and find open looks, California Baptist may be able to establish a rhythm and build momentum. On the other hand, if Peterson can contain Daniels Jr. and dictate the pace, Kansas will be well-positioned to control the tempo and dictate the terms of the game. The outcome of this individual matchup will be a crucial factor in determining the ultimate winner of the contest.
CHD Scout Prediction
California Baptist
72
Kansas
71
Based on the model's numbers, which suggest a narrow 72-71 victory for California Baptist with a 51.1% win probability, I disagree with the prediction and believe Kansas will emerge victorious. The primary reason for my dissent is the significant disparity in the teams' NET rankings, with Kansas holding a substantial advantage at #21 compared to California Baptist's #98. This difference in ranking suggests a notable gap in overall team strength, which I expect to be the decisive factor in a neutral-site game, ultimately leading to a Kansas win.
Tournament Stakes
This matchup holds varying levels of significance for each team's postseason aspirations. For Kansas, a win would bolster their NCAA Tournament resume, potentially enhancing their seeding by adding to their already impressive Quad 1 record, while a loss would be a Quad 2 defeat, given California Baptist's NET ranking. Conversely, California Baptist's only path to the NCAA Tournament is by winning their conference tournament, so this game is more about measuring themselves against a high-caliber opponent, with the opportunity to secure a Quad 1 win, which would be a significant upset. Given that this game is a Quad 1 opportunity for California Baptist and a Quad 2 game for Kansas, the Jayhawks must be wary of a road loss that could dent their tournament seeding, and ultimately, Kansas' postseason security may hinge on avoiding a damaging defeat to a mid-major opponent.