The University of Illinois at Chicago Flames and the University of California, Berkeley Golden Bears are set to face off at Haas Pavilion on March 18, with both teams seeking to bolster their postseason prospects. UIC, having recently fallen to Northern Iowa, will look to regain momentum in a non-conference matchup against Cal. The Bears, meanwhile, are coming off a loss to Florida State and will aim to bounce back in front of their home crowd. With the Flames' only path to the NCAA Tournament being a conference tournament auto-bid, they will be driven to prove themselves against a power conference opponent.
As the Flames and Cal take to the court, the small margins that separate evenly matched teams will be on full display. Cal's positioning on the fringe of the bubble adds an extra layer of significance to this contest, as a win could help bolster their case for postseason consideration. The model prediction of a narrow 74-73 Cal victory, with the Bears holding a 52.9% win probability, underscores the tight nature of this matchup. With both teams seeking to make a statement, this game has the potential to be a closely contested, back-and-forth affair that will keep fans engaged until the final whistle.
Averaging 14.0 points per game, has been the team's leading scorer, with his 4.6 assists per game also pacing the team. The team's recent form has been inconsistent, as evidenced by their last five games, which included a 69-84 loss to Northern Iowa and a 72-51 win over Drake. His 2.9 rebounds per game have been complemented by 's 5.1 rebounds per game, which have been crucial in supporting the team's offense. With a 19-14 overall record, the team has shown flashes of brilliance, including a 92-79 win at Murray State.
The team's offense has been bolstered by 's 12.1 points per game and 's 11.2 points per game, with 's 7.8 points per game providing additional support. His 45% three-point shooting has not been listed, but Mekhi Lowery's 5.6 rebounds per game have been important in securing possessions. The team's 12-8 conference record has been marked by ups and downs, including a 63-79 loss at Indiana State and a 93-86 win over Bradley, showcasing the team's potential for high-scoring performances. As the team heads into the game against California, Elijah Crawford's all-around skills will be crucial in determining the outcome.
With a 21-11 overall record, California is looking to bounce back from a pair of losses in their last two games, including an 89-95 defeat at Florida State and a 73-80 loss at Wake Forest. Averaging 17.3 points per game, has been the team's most consistent scorer, and his ability to create for himself and others will be crucial in this matchup. The team's leading scorer, Ames is complemented by the all-around skills of , who is averaging 4.6 assists per game, and the sharp shooting of , whose 13.7 points per game have been a key factor in California's offense.
His 45% three-point shooting aside, John Camden's scoring prowess has been matched by the consistent production of , who is averaging 13.5 points per game, and the rebounding prowess of , whose 8.1 rebounds per game have been a key factor in California's success on the glass. With a 9-9 record in conference play, California is looking to finish the season on a strong note, and the team's recent 76-65 win at Georgia Tech is a testament to their ability to compete against tough opponents. As California faces UIC, the team will rely on the scoring and playmaking abilities of Dai Dai Ames and Justin Pippen to propel them to victory.
Key Matchups
The matchup between Elijah Crawford and Justin Pippen will be pivotal in determining the outcome of this game. Crawford, UIC's primary playmaker, will need to navigate Pippen's defensive pressure to create scoring opportunities for himself and his teammates. Pippen's ability to match up with Crawford and limit his scoring chances will be crucial, as UIC's offense often flows through their point guard. If Pippen can contain Crawford, California's defense will be well-equipped to handle UIC's other scoring threats.
Pippen's own scoring ability will also be a factor in this matchup, as Crawford will likely be tasked with defending him. Crawford's defensive skills will be put to the test as he tries to keep Pippen in check, and if he is unable to do so, California's offense could gain a significant advantage. The battle between these two players will be a fascinating one, with the outcome likely to have a significant impact on the final result.
CHD Scout Prediction
UIC
73
California
74
Based on the model's numbers, which suggest a narrow 74-73 California victory with a 52.9% win probability, I disagree with the prediction and believe UIC will emerge victorious. The primary reason for my dissent is the significant disparity in the teams' NET rankings, with California holding a substantial advantage as the #67 team, but UIC has still managed to compile a respectable 19-14 record, indicating a level of competitiveness that could allow them to overcome the slight edge the model gives to California.
Tournament Stakes
For California, a win in this contest would be a Quad 1 victory for their opponent, but merely a Quad 3 addition to their own resume, offering limited upside in terms of bolstering their at-large case. However, a loss would be a damaging Quad 1 defeat, potentially jeopardizing their fragile bubble position. Conversely, UIC's postseason aspirations are solely tied to winning their conference tournament, rendering this game inconsequential to their NCAA hopes. As the Golden Bears navigate the perilous landscape of bubble teams, the margin for error is slim, and a loss to a sub-100 NET team like UIC would be a significant misstep, underscoring the notion that California's postseason fate will be decided by their ability to avoid bad losses rather than compile impressive wins.