The Illinois State Redbirds and Dayton Flyers are set to clash at UD Arena on March 25, a matchup that carries significant implications for both teams' conference tournament aspirations. As the season winds down, the margins between success and disappointment are razor-thin, and this game serves as a prime example. With both teams sitting outside the NCAA Tournament bubble, their focus shifts to securing a strong position in their respective conference tournaments, where an automatic bid is the only path to the Big Dance.
The Redbirds and Flyers have both demonstrated resilience in recent weeks, with each team posting a 4-1 record over their last five games. Illinois State, in particular, has shown an ability to rise to the occasion, as evidenced by their recent victory over Wake Forest. Meanwhile, Dayton has been impressive in its own right, with a convincing win over UNC Wilmington showcasing its capabilities. As these two evenly matched teams take to the court, the outcome will likely be decided by the smallest of margins, making for a compelling contest that will have a direct impact on the conference race and postseason positioning for both Illinois State and Dayton.
Averaging 13.7 points per game, has been the team's leading scorer, while his 5.3 rebounds per game have also been crucial for Illinois State. The team's record stands at 22-12, with a 12-8 mark in the Missouri Valley Conference, and their recent form has been solid, with wins in four of their last five games, including a 78-75 victory at Wake Forest on March 22. His 2.1 assists per game have also been important in guiding the team's offense, which has been supported by the likes of , whose 3.4 assists per game have been vital in creating scoring opportunities.
With his 45% three-point shooting, has been a key contributor to Illinois State's offense, and his 10.0 points per game have been complemented by the likes of , who averages 9.9 points per game, and , who contributes 9.4 points per game. The team's recent wins, including a 79-58 victory over Kent State on March 18, have been notable, and their ability to bounce back from a 52-74 loss to Northern Iowa on March 6 has been impressive. His 4.5 rebounds per game, matched by Ty Pence, have also been important in supporting the team's defense, which will be tested against Dayton.
With a 25-11 overall record and a 12-6 mark in the Atlantic 10, Dayton's season has been marked by consistency, particularly in their ability to defeat lower-tier opponents. Averaging 16.3 points per game, has been the team's leading scorer, while his 3.0 assists per game have also been crucial in facilitating the team's offense. The team's recent form has been solid, with victories in four of their last five games, including an 80-61 win at UNC Wilmington and an 80-66 win at Bradley.
His 45% three-point shooting has been a key factor in Dayton's success, and 's ability to score from beyond the arc has been complemented by 's strong rebounding, with the latter averaging 5.9 rebounds per game. 's all-around skills, including 9.2 points, 4.8 rebounds, and 2.5 assists per game, have also been vital to the team's performance, while has provided a spark off the bench with 7.7 points and 5.3 rebounds per game. The team's ability to balance scoring and rebounding has been a key factor in their success, and they will look to continue this trend against Illinois State.
Key Matchups
The matchup between Illinois State's Chase Walker and Dayton's Amaël L'Etang will be pivotal in determining the outcome of this game. Walker, a versatile scorer, will face a significant challenge in L'Etang, who boasts a considerable rebounding advantage. L'Etang's ability to control the glass could limit Walker's opportunities for second-chance points and put pressure on Illinois State's offense to perform efficiently in its initial possessions.
If L'Etang can contain Walker and secure rebounds, it would force Illinois State to rely on its other scoring options, which may not be as potent. Conversely, if Walker can outmaneuver L'Etang and find ways to score and rebound effectively, it could create opportunities for his teammates and swing the momentum in favor of the Redbirds. The outcome of this individual battle will have a significant impact on the team's overall performance and ultimately decide the game's outcome.
CHD Scout Prediction
Illinois State
69
Dayton
75
The model's numbers suggest a Dayton victory, 75-69, with a 67.1% win probability. I agree with this assessment, as the significant difference in NET rankings between the two teams is a telling indicator of their relative strengths. Specifically, Dayton's notable advantage in this regard, ranked 26 spots higher than Illinois State, leads me to believe that they will emerge victorious, as their superior overall performance throughout the season will give them the edge they need to secure a win.
Tournament Stakes
As the regular season draws to a close, both Illinois State and Dayton are keenly focused on positioning themselves for a deep run in their respective conference tournaments. For Illinois State, a win on the road against a Quad 1 opponent would be a significant boost to their Missouri Valley Conference standings, potentially propelling them into a more favorable seed for the conference tournament. Meanwhile, Dayton is seeking to solidify their position in the Atlantic 10, where a strong finish to the regular season could earn them a crucial bye in the conference tournament. With both teams' postseason aspirations hinging on a conference tournament title, the outcome of this game will have a direct impact on their trajectory, and it's clear that the team that emerges victorious will have taken a crucial step towards extending their season - and for Illinois State, a loss would be a stark reminder that their program's progress is still firmly tied to their ability to perform under pressure.