The Kent State Golden Flashes will face off against the Illinois State Redbirds at CEFCU Arena on March 18, a matchup that pits two teams with their sights set on conference tournament success. As the MAC's Kent State and the MVC's Illinois State take to the court, it's clear that the Redbirds are the heavy favorites, but the Golden Flashes are looking to pull off an upset. With both teams' only path to the NCAA Tournament being through their respective conference tournaments, this game serves as a crucial test of each team's mettle.
Despite being the underdog, Kent State has shown flashes of brilliance, particularly on the defensive end, where they've managed to stifle opponents and create turnovers. Meanwhile, Illinois State has struggled with inconsistency, particularly in their most recent outing, a 22-point loss to Northern Iowa. For the Redbirds to assert their dominance, they'll need to shore up their vulnerabilities and demonstrate a more cohesive effort. An upset by Kent State would require a near-flawless performance, capitalizing on Illinois State's miscues and converting on scoring opportunities. As the favorite, Illinois State still needs to prove they can perform under pressure and against a team looking to spoil their season.
Averaging 18.4 points per game, has been the team's leading scorer, while his 11.3 rebounds per game make him a dominant force on the glass. The team's recent form has been mixed, with losses to Akron in two of their last five games, including a 68-75 defeat on March 13, but they have also shown their scoring prowess with wins like the 86-75 victory over Ohio on March 12. His 45% field goal shooting has been complemented by the outside shooting of , who is scoring 13.9 points per game.
With contributing 12.0 points per game, the team has a balanced attack, and 's 6.1 assists per game have been crucial in facilitating the offense. 's 10.4 points per game have also been a key factor in the team's success, as they head into the game against Illinois State with a 24-9 overall record. His 40% three-point shooting has been a valuable asset, and Medley's ability to set up his teammates has been essential in their victories, including the 102-76 win at Northern Illinois on March 3.
Averaging 13.5 points per game, Chase Walker has been a crucial component of Illinois State's offense, while his 5.3 rebounds per game demonstrate his ability to contribute on the boards. The team's recent form has been inconsistent, with losses to Northern Iowa and Bradley in their last five games, including a 52-74 defeat against Northern Iowa on March 6. However, Illinois State has also shown resilience, securing wins against Belmont and Murray State, with a notable 71-69 victory at Northern Iowa on February 25.
His 45% three-point shooting has been a valuable asset for Illinois State, and with and averaging 10.3 and 10.2 points per game, respectively, the team has a balanced attack. , with his 11.4 points per game, has been the team's leading scorer, and his 3.2 assists per game highlight his playmaking ability, while 's 4.4 rebounds per game have been essential to the team's overall performance. With a 20-12 record and a NET ranking of #95, Illinois State will look to capitalize on their home advantage against Kent State.
Key Matchups
The matchup between Delrecco Gillespie and Chase Walker will be pivotal in determining the outcome of this game. Gillespie's impressive rebounding ability, averaging 11.3 rebounds per game, will be tested by Walker's all-around skills, including 5.3 rebounds per game. If Gillespie can assert his dominance on the glass, it could limit Illinois State's second-chance opportunities and give Kent State a significant advantage.
Gillespie's scoring prowess, averaging 18.4 points per game, will also be a challenge for Walker, who will likely be tasked with defending him. Walker's 2.1 assists per game suggest he is comfortable making plays off the ball, but his primary focus will be on containing Gillespie. If Walker can find a way to slow down Gillespie, it could disrupt Kent State's offense and give Illinois State an opportunity to control the tempo of the game.
CHD Scout Prediction
Kent State
71
Illinois State
82
Based on the model's prediction, which favors Illinois State 82-71 with an 82.7% win probability, I agree that the Redbirds will emerge victorious. The primary reason for this pick is the significant disparity in the teams' NET rankings, with Illinois State holding a substantial advantage at #95 compared to Kent State's #141. This difference suggests that Illinois State has performed more consistently against stronger opponents, which should give them an edge in this matchup, supporting the model's prediction of an Illinois State win.
Tournament Stakes
As the regular season winds down, this matchup holds significant implications for both teams' conference tournament positioning. A win for Illinois State would bolster their chances of securing a higher seed in the MVC tournament, potentially setting them up for a more favorable path to the championship game. For Kent State, a victory on the road would be a crucial step in bolstering their MAC tournament resume, as they jockey for position in a crowded conference standings. With both teams relying on their conference tournament auto-bid as their sole means of advancing to the NCAA Tournament, the importance of conference standings and tournament seeding cannot be overstated. Ultimately, the outcome of this game will have a profound impact on the trajectory of each program's season, and it's clear that Illinois State's superior resume and home-court advantage make them the team with the most to lose in this Quad 3 matchup for the hosts and a Quad 2 test for the visiting Golden Flashes.