The Liberty Flames, seeking to reignite their momentum, will face off against the George Mason Patriots at EagleBank Arena on March 17. With both teams having experienced recent setbacks, this matchup takes on added significance as each side looks to regain its footing. Liberty, having dropped three of its last five contests, including a 69-77 loss to Missouri State, will aim to leverage its strengths to challenge the favored Patriots. Meanwhile, George Mason, also 2-3 in its last five games after falling 57-63 to St. Bonaventure, seeks to reestablish its dominance on its home court.
As the Liberty Flames clash with the Patriots, the underdog will need to capitalize on any vulnerabilities in George Mason's defense to mount a credible challenge. Despite being the heavy favorite, the Patriots still have much to prove, particularly in terms of consistency and ability to close out games against determined opponents like Liberty. With both teams relying on winning their respective conference tournaments for a potential NCAA Tournament berth, this game serves as a crucial test of each side's resolve and postseason mettle. The Flames will need to draw upon their collective strengths to pull off the upset, while the Patriots must demonstrate the poise and depth to justify their favored status.
Averaging 16.8 points per game, has been the team's leading scorer, with his contributions playing a significant role in Liberty's 25-7 overall record and 17-3 mark in Conference USA. His 45% three-point shooting has been a key factor in the team's success, and with also averaging 13.8 points per game, Liberty has a formidable one-two punch on offense. The team's recent form has been mixed, with losses to Missouri State and Louisiana Tech in their last five games, but victories over Sam Houston and Jacksonville State have shown that they can still compete with strong opponents.
With 's 7.5 rebounds per game and 6.8 assists per game, Liberty has a strong presence in the paint and a player who can create scoring opportunities for his teammates. The team's leading rebounder, Zach Cleveland's all-around skills have been crucial to their success, and with and also contributing significantly, scoring 11.6 and 10.7 points per game, respectively, Liberty has a deep and talented roster. As they head into their game against George Mason, Liberty will be looking to bounce back from their recent losses and continue their strong season, with Kaden Metheny's 3.1 assists per game and Brett Decker Jr.'s scoring ability likely to play a key role in their chances of success.
Averaging 14.1 points per game, has been a crucial component of George Mason's offense, complemented by his 3.0 assists per game. The team's leading scorer, supported by 's 13.8 points and 6.2 rebounds per game, has helped drive George Mason to a 23-9 overall record and an 11-7 mark in the Atlantic 10 conference. With a NET ranking of 92, George Mason has shown resilience in its schedule, particularly in Quad 3 games, where it boasts an 11-4 record.
His 45% three-point shooting has been a significant asset, but 's all-around skills, including 11.3 points, 3.4 rebounds, and 4.0 assists per game, have been essential to George Mason's success. Fatt Hill's contributions, with 10.3 points and 3.6 rebounds per game, have also been vital, while 's 8.5 points and 3.4 rebounds per game have provided additional depth. Following a loss to St. Bonaventure on March 12, George Mason will look to bounce back against Liberty, aiming to build on its recent victories, including an 86-57 win over Saint Louis on March 7.
Key Matchups
The matchup between Liberty's Zach Cleveland and George Mason's Jahari Long will be pivotal in determining the outcome of this game. Cleveland, with his impressive all-around statistics, poses a significant threat to the Patriots' defense, while Long's ability to score and distribute the ball will test the Flames' backcourt. The battle between these two versatile guards will likely decide which team can establish a rhythm on offense and gain a decisive advantage.
Cleveland's high assist average suggests he will look to create scoring opportunities for his teammates, while Long's scoring ability will force Cleveland to work on both ends of the floor. If Cleveland can outmaneuver Long and limit his scoring chances while still facilitating Liberty's offense, the Flames may gain the upper hand. Conversely, if Long can contain Cleveland and find ways to score against him, George Mason may be able to dictate the pace of the game and come out on top.
CHD Scout Prediction
Liberty
68
George Mason
76
Based on the provided data, I agree with the model's prediction that George Mason will win, 76-68. The model's 75.8% win probability suggests a significant advantage for the Patriots, and I concur with this assessment. A key reason for my pick is the difference in NET rankings between the two teams, with George Mason holding a notable edge at #92 compared to Liberty's #106, indicating a slight disparity in overall strength that I believe will give George Mason the upper hand in this matchup.
Tournament Stakes
As the regular season winds down, both Liberty and George Mason are focused on positioning themselves for a deep run in their respective conference tournaments, with the Flames seeking to climb the standings in Conference USA and the Patriots aiming to solidify their spot in the Atlantic 10. A win for Liberty would be a significant boost to their conference tournament prospects, potentially propelling them into a more favorable seed and matchup, while a loss could leave them vulnerable to a lower seed and tougher path. For George Mason, a victory would help them maintain their footing in the A10, where they are currently jostling for position with several other teams, and would be considered a Quad 3 win for them, while Liberty would view it as a Quad 2 loss, given the relative strength of the Patriots. Ultimately, the outcome of this game will have a profound impact on the trajectory of each program, and it's clear that George Mason's ability to capitalize on home-court advantage will be the deciding factor in a contest that could either bolster or undermine their conference tournament aspirations, and George Mason's postseason fate will be shaped by their capacity to protect their home floor.