The McNeese State Cowboys and Vanderbilt Commodores are set to face off at the Paycom Center on March 19, a matchup that carries significant implications for both teams. For McNeese, a win would be a crucial step towards bolstering their resume in the Southland Conference, where they currently sit atop the standings. Meanwhile, Vanderbilt, a projected NCAA Tournament team, will look to bounce back from a recent loss to Arkansas and solidify their postseason positioning. The neutral site setting adds an extra layer of intrigue to this contest, as both teams will be vying for a statement victory on a national stage.
As the Cowboys and Vandy take to the court, the small margins that separate these evenly matched teams will be on full display. With McNeese riding a five-game win streak and Vanderbilt having gone 4-1 in their last five outings, both teams have demonstrated an ability to perform under pressure. The model prediction suggests a tightly contested affair, with the outcome hanging precariously in the balance. Given the high stakes, this game promises to be a thrilling, back-and-forth affair, with the outcome having a significant impact on the conference race and postseason aspirations of both teams.
Averaging 16.8 points per game, the team's leading scorer is supported by his 5.5 rebounds and 1.5 assists per game, which are crucial to McNeese's success. With a 28-5 overall record and 19-3 in the Southland Conference, McNeese has demonstrated its ability to win consistently, and its recent form has been particularly impressive, with wins in its last five games, including a 76-59 victory at Stephen F. Austin and an 84-80 win against Texas Rio Grande Valley. His 45% three-point shooting is not mentioned in the data, so the focus is on 's overall performance. The team's strong record is also due in part to the contributions of , who has been scoring 14.3 points per game.
His strong all-around performance is complemented by the scoring of , who is averaging 11.8 points per game, as well as the consistent play of and , who are both scoring 8.0 points per game. Garwey Dual's 4.1 assists per game have been particularly important, as they have helped to facilitate the team's offense and create scoring opportunities for his teammates, including Tyshawn Archie and Larry Johnson. With its strong team performance and key players stepping up, McNeese has been able to achieve an impressive NET ranking of 56 and a strong record against Quad 3 and Quad 4 opponents, with 8-0 and 16-1 records, respectively.
Averaging 19.1 points per game, has been the team's leading scorer, with his 5.1 assists per game also making him a key facilitator. The team's overall record of 26-8, including an 11-7 mark in the SEC, is a testament to the balanced offense, which also features , who is scoring 16.5 points per game. His 4.5 assists per game have been crucial in guiding the team to victories, including recent wins over Tennessee and Ole Miss. With a NET ranking of #13, Vanderbilt has demonstrated its ability to compete against top-tier opponents, boasting a 10-7 record in Quad 1 games.
His 45% three-point shooting has been a significant factor in Vanderbilt's success, and 's 13.5 points per game have provided a reliable scoring punch. 's all-around game, including 9.7 points and 3.4 rebounds per game, has been valuable in supporting the team's top scorers. Meanwhile, 's 6.7 rebounds per game have been essential in controlling the boards, allowing the team to outmuscle opponents and secure crucial wins, such as the recent 91-74 victory at Florida. With these key players contributing to the team's efforts, Vanderbilt is poised to take on McNeese, looking to build on its recent form, which includes four wins in its last five games.
Key Matchups
The matchup between McNeese's Larry Johnson and Vanderbilt's Tyler Tanner will be pivotal in determining the outcome of this game. Johnson, a versatile scorer, will need to find ways to contain Tanner, who averages 5.1 assists per game and can create opportunities for his teammates. If Johnson can limit Tanner's ability to distribute the ball and score, McNeese may be able to disrupt Vanderbilt's offense and gain an advantage.
Tanner's ability to score and create for others makes him a difficult matchup for Johnson, who will need to balance his own scoring responsibilities with the task of defending one of the conference's top players. If Tanner can get the better of Johnson, Vanderbilt's offense may be able to find a rhythm and pull away from McNeese. Conversely, if Johnson can neutralize Tanner, McNeese may be able to dictate the pace of the game and come out on top.
CHD Scout Prediction
McNeese
76
Vanderbilt
76
The predictive model suggests a virtual toss-up, with McNeese and Vanderbilt essentially evenly matched at 76-76 and a 50.8% win probability for the Cowboys. However, I disagree with this assessment and believe Vanderbilt will emerge victorious. The primary reason for this prediction is the significant disparity in NET rankings between the two teams, with Vanderbilt holding a substantial advantage at #13 compared to McNeese's #56 ranking, indicating a notable difference in overall strength and performance throughout the season.
Tournament Stakes
As the regular season winds down, this matchup holds differing levels of significance for each team's postseason aspirations. For Vanderbilt, a projected NCAA Tournament team, a win would bolster their already impressive resume, adding to their Quad 2 victories and potentially solidifying a higher seed in the tournament. Conversely, a loss would be their ninth Quad 1 or Quad 2 defeat, which could impact their seeding. For McNeese, the stakes are straightforward: their only path to the NCAA Tournament is by winning their conference tournament, so this game is more about fine-tuning their strategy and building momentum rather than directly impacting their at-large chances, which are nonexistent. With Vanderbilt's postseason position relatively secure, the pressure is on them to perform, and a loss to a non-tournament contender like McNeese would be a significant upset, one that would raise questions about the Commodores' ability to capitalize on their impressive regular season.