The Miami University (Ohio) RedHawks and the University of Tennessee Volunteers are set to face off at the Xfinity Mobile Arena, a neutral site, on March 20. This matchup brings together two teams with distinct motivations, as Miami (OH) seeks to maintain its unblemished conference record and bolster its chances of claiming the Mid-American Conference tournament title, its only path to postseason play. Meanwhile, Tennessee looks to strengthen its position in the Southeastern Conference standings and solidify its footing as a projected NCAA Tournament participant.
As the RedHawks and Volunteers take to the court, the small margins that separate evenly matched teams will be on full display. With Miami (OH) riding a strong recent run, having gone 4-1 in its last five outings, and Tennessee looking to rebound from a loss in its most recent game, the stage is set for a closely contested affair. The Volunteers, with their superior NET ranking, will aim to assert their dominance, while the RedHawks will seek to leverage their momentum and conference success to pull off a notable upset. As the two teams clash, the outcome will hinge on the subtle nuances of each squad's performance, making for a compelling matchup with significant implications for their respective conference races and postseason aspirations.
Averaging 18.3 points per game collectively, the team's leading scorers have driven Miami (OH)'s success, with and contributing 14.7 and 14.6 points per game, respectively. The team's recent form has been marked by high-scoring affairs, including a 110-108 win at Ohio and a 89-79 victory at SMU, showcasing the offense's ability to perform under pressure. His 45% three-point shooting has been a notable aspect of Evan Ipsaro's game, complementing his 14.4 points per game.
With a 32-1 record, Miami (OH) has demonstrated its consistency, and the team's balance is reflected in its statistical leaders, including , who is averaging 6.1 rebounds per game to go along with 13.1 points. 's 4.5 assists per game have been crucial in facilitating the team's offense, and his ability to score, averaging 10.8 points per game, has made him a valuable asset. The team's lone loss, an 83-87 defeat to Massachusetts, serves as a reminder that despite its impressive record, Miami (OH) is not invincible, and its upcoming game against Tennessee will be a significant test.
Averaging 17.5 points per game, has been the team's leading scorer, with his 6.6 rebounds per game also making him a key contributor on the boards. His 2.5 assists per game demonstrate his ability to create scoring opportunities for teammates, including , who is averaging 5.5 assists per game. With his 18.0 points per game, Ja'Kobi Gillespie has been a crucial part of the team's offense, and his 2.8 rebounds per game have also been valuable. The team's recent form has been mixed, with losses to Vanderbilt and Alabama in their last five games, but they have also secured wins over Auburn and South Carolina.
The team's post players, including and , have provided a strong presence in the paint, with Felix Okpara averaging 6.2 rebounds per game and Jaylen Carey also averaging 6.2 rebounds per game. His 7.7 points per game have been a boost to the team's offense, while Jaylen Carey's 7.4 points per game have also been important. 's 10.1 points per game have made him a key contributor to the team's scoring, and his 5.2 rebounds per game have also been valuable. With a record of 22-11 and a NET ranking of #20, the team will be looking to build on their recent win over Auburn and secure a strong finish to the season.
Key Matchups
The matchup between Miami (OH)'s Peter Suder and Tennessee's Ja'Kobi Gillespie will be pivotal in determining the outcome of this game. Both players are their team's primary facilitators, and their ability to create for themselves and others will be crucial. Suder's well-rounded game, which includes 4.1 assists per game, will be tested by Gillespie's exceptional scoring ability and 5.5 assists per game. If Suder can contain Gillespie and limit his scoring opportunities, it could significantly hinder Tennessee's offense.
The battle between these two guards will also be a test of each player's defensive capabilities. Gillespie's 2.8 rebounds per game suggest he may struggle to keep up with Suder's 4.8 rebounds per game, potentially allowing Miami (OH) to gain an edge on the glass. Conversely, if Gillespie can outmaneuver Suder and find open teammates, Tennessee's offense could thrive. The outcome of this individual matchup will have a significant impact on the team's overall performance, making it a critical aspect of the game to watch.
CHD Scout Prediction
Miami (OH)
80
Tennessee
76
Based on the model's prediction, which favors Miami (OH) 80-76 with a 64.3% win probability, I disagree and believe Tennessee will emerge victorious. The primary reason for my dissent is the significant disparity in NCAA Evaluation Tool (NET) rankings between the two teams, with Tennessee holding a substantial advantage at #20 compared to Miami (OH) at #64. This suggests that Tennessee has consistently performed at a higher level against stronger competition, which I believe will give them the edge they need to overcome Miami (OH) in this neutral-site matchup.
Tournament Stakes
As the regular season winds down, this matchup holds varying levels of significance for each team's postseason aspirations. For Tennessee, a projected NCAA Tournament team, this game is a Quad 1 opportunity for Miami (OH) but falls under a lesser tier for the Volunteers, potentially affecting their seeding. A win would bolster their resume, while a loss could marginally impact their positioning, particularly if they drop further Quad 1 games down the stretch. Conversely, Miami (OH) has no at-large aspirations, making this game irrelevant to their NCAA hopes outside of building momentum for the MAC conference tournament. With Tennessee's postseason fate all but sealed, the true stakes lie in their ability to refine their tournament readiness, and a loss to a mid-major like Miami (OH) would be a concerning sign of vulnerability, underscoring that even a team as established as the Volunteers is not immune to the perils of complacency.