The North Dakota State Bison and Michigan State Spartans are set to face off at the KeyBank Center, a neutral site, on March 19. This matchup brings together two teams with distinct postseason trajectories: North Dakota State, with a 27-7 overall record and 14-2 mark in the Summit League, is seeking to bolster its conference tournament resume, while Michigan State, at 25-7 overall and 15-5 in the Big Ten, is looking to solidify its positioning for the NCAA Tournament. The contrast in their national profiles is evident, with NDSU's only path to the tournament being a Summit League title, and MSU poised to make a deeper run.
As the teams take to the court, the margin between them is expected to be slim, with a model prediction of a 76-73 Michigan State victory. Recent form suggests that both teams are capable of producing high-quality performances, with North Dakota State having gone 4-1 in its last five games and Michigan State posting a 3-2 record over the same span. The Spartans, in particular, will be looking to rebound from a narrow loss to UCLA in their most recent outing. With the stakes high for both teams, this game promises to be a closely contested affair, one that will test the mettle of each squad and provide a compelling matchup for a national audience.
Averaging 14.9 points per game, has been the team's leading scorer, with his 3.6 rebounds and 2.7 assists per game also contributing to North Dakota State's success. His performance has been crucial in the team's recent winning streak, which includes victories over North Dakota, Omaha, and Oral Roberts. The team's record stands at 27-7, with a 14-2 mark in the SUMM conference, and their NET ranking of 114 reflects their overall strength. With 's 12.2 points and 6.5 rebounds per game, the team has a solid foundation in the paint.
The team's recent form has been impressive, with four consecutive wins, including a 76-65 victory over Oral Roberts and a 96-63 win over North Dakota. 's 10.8 points per game and 's 10.8 points and 5.6 rebounds per game have been key factors in these wins. 's 4.8 assists per game have also been important, as he has helped to facilitate the team's offense. His 9.4 points per game have been a welcome addition to the team's scoring efforts, and with the team's strong recent form, they will look to carry this momentum into their upcoming game against Michigan State.
Averaging 15.4 points per game, has been the catalyst for Michigan State's offense, with his 9.2 assists per game also making him the team's primary playmaker. The team's leading scorer, Jeremy Fears Jr., has been instrumental in Michigan State's 25-7 record, including a 15-5 mark in the Big Ten. His 15.4 points per game are complemented by 's 12.6 points and 9.1 rebounds per game, making him a formidable presence in the paint. With a 10-6 record against Quad 1 opponents, Michigan State has demonstrated its ability to compete against elite teams.
In recent games, Michigan State has shown resilience, with 's 11.6 points per game and 5.4 rebounds per game providing a spark off the bench. His 45% three-point shooting has been a valuable asset, and 's 10.8 points and 7.0 rebounds per game have also been crucial in Michigan State's victories. Despite losing two of their last five games, including an 84-88 loss to UCLA, Michigan State has also shown its ability to bounce back, with 's 7.7 points per game providing a boost off the bench, as seen in their 91-87 win over Rutgers and 77-64 win at Indiana.
Key Matchups
The matchup between Jeremy Fears Jr. and Damari Wheeler-Thomas will be pivotal in determining the outcome of this game. As the primary ball handlers for their respective teams, their ability to create scoring opportunities and dictate the tempo of the game will be crucial. Fears Jr.'s exceptional passing ability, averaging 9.2 assists per game, will be tested by Wheeler-Thomas's scoring prowess, as he averages 14.9 points per game. If Fears Jr. can effectively distribute the ball and limit Wheeler-Thomas's scoring chances, Michigan State will gain a significant advantage.
The contrast in playing styles between Fears Jr. and Wheeler-Thomas adds complexity to this matchup. Fears Jr.'s high assist average suggests he is more focused on setting up his teammates, while Wheeler-Thomas's scoring average indicates he is more focused on individual scoring. If Wheeler-Thomas can find ways to score against Fears Jr.'s defensive efforts, it could force Michigan State to adjust their strategy, potentially disrupting their overall team rhythm. Conversely, if Fears Jr. can outmaneuver Wheeler-Thomas and control the game's pace, North Dakota State may struggle to keep up with Michigan State's offense.
CHD Scout Prediction
North Dakota State
73
Michigan State
76
Based on the provided data, I predict Michigan State will win this neutral-site game. The model's numbers suggest a 62.0% win probability for Michigan State, with a predicted score of 76-73, and I agree with this assessment. The primary reason for my pick is the significant disparity in the teams' NET rankings, with Michigan State holding a substantial advantage at #11 compared to North Dakota State's #114 ranking, indicating a notable difference in the quality of opposition each team has faced and their corresponding performance against those opponents.
Tournament Stakes
This matchup holds vastly different implications for each team's postseason aspirations. For Michigan State, a win would bolster their already impressive resume, adding to their 10-6 Quad 1 record, while a loss would be a Quad 2 blemish, potentially affecting their seeding in the NCAA Tournament. As a projected tournament team, every game counts in terms of refining their resume, and a victory over North Dakota State would be a Quad 2 win, maintaining their strong positioning. On the other hand, North Dakota State's postseason hopes are solely tied to winning their conference tournament, rendering this game more about pride and a chance to claim a marquee scalp rather than impacting their tournament prospects. With Michigan State facing a Quad 1 opponent in North Dakota State, the Spartans must be wary of an upset, as a loss would undoubtedly be a Quad 1 setback, a stark reminder that even the most seemingly innocuous games can have a profound impact on a team's tournament trajectory.