The Queens University of New York Royals, fresh from a thrilling 98-93 victory over Central Arkansas, will face off against the Purdue University Boilermakers at the Enterprise Center on March 20. As the Queens Royals look to pull off a monumental upset, they will need to capitalize on their recent form, which has seen them go 4-1 in their last five games. Despite being a significant underdog, the Royals have shown glimpses of their potential, and a strong performance could potentially expose vulnerabilities in the favored Boilermakers.
Purdue, on the other hand, enters the game as a heavy favorite, with a strong 4-1 record in their last five games, including an 80-72 win over Michigan. While the Boilermakers are poised to make a deep run in the tournament, they still need to prove they can maintain their focus and intensity against lesser opponents. As a projected NCAA Tournament team, Purdue will be looking to fine-tune their game ahead of the bigger stage, but they cannot afford to overlook the Royals, who will be fighting for their postseason lives. With Purdue's high ranking and Queens' low NET ranking, the stage is set for a potentially intriguing matchup between two teams with vastly different expectations.
Averaging 13.6 points per game, Nasir Mann has been the team's leading scorer, with his 5.7 rebounds per game also making him a key contributor on the boards. The team's recent form has been encouraging, with wins in four of their last five games, including a 98-93 victory at Central Arkansas on March 8 and a 90-83 win at Austin Peay on March 7. His 2.7 assists per game have also been important in facilitating the team's offense, which has been clicking in recent games, as evidenced by their 71-63 win over West Georgia on March 6.
With 11.4 points per game, Avantae Parker has been a consistent presence in the team's lineup, and his 5.5 rebounds per game have provided a boost to the team's interior defense. The team's backcourt has been well-stocked, with Jordan Watford and Yoav Berman providing complementary skills, as Jordan Watford's 3.8 assists per game and Yoav Berman's 3.7 assists per game have helped to distribute the ball effectively, while Chris Ashby's 11.3 points per game have given the team an additional scoring option, and his 45% three-point shooting has not been a significant factor, as that stat is not available, but his overall scoring has been a welcome addition. His 2.0 rebounds per game have been less significant, but the team's overall balance has been a key factor in their recent success.
With a 27-8 overall record and a 13-7 mark in the Big Ten, Purdue enters this matchup having demonstrated its ability to compete against strong opponents, as evidenced by its 11-8 record in Quad 1 games. The team's leading scorer is backed by a strong supporting cast, including , whose 8.5 rebounds per game have been crucial in controlling the paint. His 13.6 points per game have also been a significant factor in the team's success. Averaging 9.1 assists per game, has been the primary facilitator, setting up his teammates for scoring opportunities.
In recent games, Purdue has shown its resilience, with wins over Michigan, UCLA, and Nebraska, including an 80-72 victory at Michigan on March 15 and a 73-66 win at UCLA on March 14. 's 13.8 points per game have been a key factor in these victories, while 's 7.4 rebounds per game have helped to secure crucial boards. With his 45% three-point shooting, Fletcher Loyer has been a threat from beyond the arc, and has also made significant contributions, averaging 8.3 points per game. The team's strong overall performance has earned them a NET ranking of #9, making them a formidable opponent for Queens (NY).
Key Matchups
The matchup between Queens' Jordan Watford and Purdue's Trey Kaufman-Renn will be pivotal in determining the outcome of this game. Kaufman-Renn's rebounding ability, averaging 8.5 boards per game, poses a significant challenge for Watford, who averages 2.7 rebounds per game. If Kaufman-Renn can dominate the glass, it will limit Queens' second-chance opportunities and put pressure on their offense to perform efficiently.
Watford, on the other hand, has a slight edge in terms of playmaking, with 3.8 assists per game compared to Kaufman-Renn's 2.6. If Watford can use his passing ability to create scoring opportunities for his teammates and draw Kaufman-Renn away from the basket, it could neutralize Purdue's rebounding advantage. The outcome of this individual battle will have a significant impact on the team's overall performance, making it a crucial aspect to watch in this matchup.
CHD Scout Prediction
Queens (NY)
73
Purdue
87
Based on the data, the model predicts a Purdue victory, 87-73, with an 88.8% win probability. I agree with this assessment, as the significant disparity in NET rankings between the two teams suggests a considerable gap in overall team strength. Specifically, Purdue's substantially higher NET ranking of #9 compared to Queens' #189 indicates a marked difference in the level of competition each team has faced and overcome, which I believe will ultimately prove too great for Queens to overcome, leading to a Purdue win.
Tournament Stakes
For Purdue, a win over Queens (NY) would be another opportunity to bolster their already impressive resume, particularly given that this game qualifies as a Quad 1 contest for the Knights, but a more modest Quad ? outing for the Boilermakers. As a projected NCAA Tournament team, Purdue's primary concern is seeding, and a strong performance against Queens (NY) could help solidify their position on the 2-4 seed line. In contrast, Queens (NY) has no margin for error, as their only path to the postseason is by winning the ASUN conference tournament; a loss, as expected, would merely reinforce their current trajectory. With Purdue's postseason fate all but assured, the real question is whether they can maintain their focus and avoid a letdown against a lesser opponent, a challenge that will ultimately reveal more about their character than their capabilities.