The Saint Joseph's Hawks and Colorado State Rams are set to face off at Moby Arena on March 18, a matchup that carries significant implications for both teams' conference tournament prospects. With Saint Joseph's sitting at 13-5 in the Atlantic 10 and Colorado State at 11-9 in the Mountain West, each side is looking to bolster its position ahead of their respective postseason competitions. The outcome of this game will have a notable impact on the seeding and momentum of both teams as they head into their conference tournaments.
As two evenly matched teams with similar trajectories, the margin between Saint Joseph's and Colorado State is expected to be slim. The Hawks and Rams have both experienced their share of ups and downs in recent weeks, with Saint Joseph's going 4-1 in its last five games and Colorado State posting a 3-2 record over the same span. With neither team in contention for an at-large NCAA Tournament bid, the focus is squarely on preparing for the conference tournaments, where a strong performance will be necessary to secure an automatic bid. The model predicts a narrow 74-71 victory for Colorado State, but the actual outcome will depend on which team can make the crucial plays down the stretch.
Averaging 16.4 points per game, Deuce Jones has been the team's leading scorer, while his 4.0 rebounds and 3.4 assists per game demonstrate his versatility. The team's overall record of 22-11, including a 13-5 mark in the Atlantic 10 conference, suggests a strong performance in their league. His 45% three-point shooting has been a significant factor in the team's success, particularly in recent games. With contributing 14.0 points, 5.2 rebounds, and 5.2 assists per game, the team has had a balanced attack, which has been key to their wins, including a 70-58 victory over Davidson on March 13.
The team's recent form has been marked by some inconsistency, with a loss to VCU on March 14, but also wins over La Salle and Rhode Island. 's 15.4 points and 4.9 rebounds per game have been crucial in these victories, while has provided a strong presence in the paint, averaging 10.9 points and 6.3 rebounds per game. 's 8.1 points and 4.4 rebounds per game have also been important, particularly in games where the team's top scorers have been held in check. As the team heads into the game against Colorado State, they will look to build on their recent wins and overcome their struggles against stronger opponents, with Deuce Jones and Derek Simpson likely to play key roles.
Averaging 11.9 points per game, has been a crucial component of Colorado State's offense, with his 4.1 rebounds per game also making him a key contributor on the boards. The team's recent form has been mixed, with losses to San Diego State and Boise State in their last five games, but they have also secured important wins over Fresno State and New Mexico. His teammate, , has been providing 2.6 assists per game, helping to facilitate the team's offense.
With his 45% three-point shooting, has been a valuable asset for Colorado State, and his 5.6 rebounds per game have also been important for the team. The team's leading scorer has received support from Josh Pascarelli, who is averaging 10.2 points per game, and , who has been contributing 9.5 points per game while also leading the team in assists with 4.8 per game. As Colorado State looks to bounce back from their recent losses, these players will be crucial in determining the outcome of their game against Saint Joseph's.
Key Matchups
The matchup between Saint Joseph's Derek Simpson and Colorado State's Carey Booth will be pivotal in determining the outcome of this game. Simpson, a versatile playmaker, will need to navigate the defensive presence of Booth, who averages 5.6 rebounds per game. If Simpson can successfully create scoring opportunities and distribute the ball to his teammates, it could open up the offense for the Hawks. Conversely, if Booth can limit Simpson's production and protect the paint, it would significantly hinder Saint Joseph's ability to generate consistent scoring.
Booth's defensive prowess against Simpson's all-around skills will be the key head-to-head battle to watch. Simpson's 5.2 assists per game suggest he is adept at finding open teammates, but Booth's rebounding ability could neutralize some of those opportunities. The outcome of this individual matchup will have a significant impact on the team's overall performance, making it a critical aspect to monitor throughout the game.
CHD Scout Prediction
Saint Joseph's
71
Colorado State
74
Based on the model's prediction, which favors Colorado State 74-71 with a 60.9% win probability, I agree that Colorado State will emerge victorious. The primary reason for this assessment is the significant disparity in the teams' NET rankings, with Colorado State holding a substantial advantage at #87 compared to Saint Joseph's at #121, indicating a notable difference in overall strength and performance throughout the season, which I believe will ultimately give Colorado State the edge it needs to secure a win.
Tournament Stakes
As the regular season winds down, both Saint Joseph's and Colorado State are focused on positioning themselves for a strong run in their respective conference tournaments, with the Hawks seeking to climb the Atlantic 10 standings and the Rams aiming to secure a favorable seed in the Mountain West tournament. A win for Saint Joseph's would be a notable boost, given the game's Quad 2 designation for them, and could help them gain momentum heading into the A10 tournament, while a loss would put pressure on them to perform well in their remaining conference games. For Colorado State, a victory would be a solid addition to their resume, albeit a Quad 3 win, and would keep them in the mix for a top-four seed in the MW tournament, which could grant them a bye in the first round. Ultimately, the outcome of this game will have significant implications for each team's program trajectory, and it's clear that Colorado State's ability to win games like this will be the difference between a promising season and a disappointing one.