The University of New Mexico will host Saint Joseph's University at The Pit on March 24, a matchup that pits two teams with differing postseason aspirations. New Mexico, a Mountain West conference contender, is seeking to bolster its NCAA Tournament resume, while Saint Joseph's, an Atlantic 10 conference team, is focused on gaining momentum for its conference tournament. With New Mexico heavily favored, the Lobos will look to assert their dominance, but the Hawks are capable of posing a challenge.
As the Hawks prepare to face a formidable opponent, they will rely on their recent strong form, having won four of their last five games, including a narrow victory over California. Meanwhile, New Mexico aims to rebound from a inconsistent stretch, having gone 3-2 in their last five games. Despite being the clear favorite, the Lobos still need to demonstrate their ability to perform under pressure, as a loss to a lower-ranked team like Saint Joseph's could jeopardize their tournament hopes. For the Hawks to pull off an upset, they would need to capitalize on any vulnerabilities in the Lobos' defense and maintain their own offensive efficiency, making for an intriguing matchup at The Pit.
Averaging 16.4 points per game, Deuce Jones has been the team's leading scorer, while also contributing 4.0 rebounds and 3.4 assists per contest. His scoring prowess has been complemented by , whose 15.6 points per game have been accompanied by 5.0 rebounds. The team's recent form has been marked by victories over California and Colorado State, with the latter being a 69-64 win on March 18. With a record of 24-11, Saint Joseph's has demonstrated an ability to compete against a range of opponents, although its 0-4 mark in Quad 1 games suggests some challenges against elite competition.
The team's balanced offense has been further bolstered by , whose 13.8 points, 5.3 rebounds, and 5.2 assists per game have made him a versatile contributor. has also been a key factor, with his 11.0 points and 6.5 rebounds per game providing a strong presence in the paint. His 45% three-point shooting is not listed, but 's 8.1 points and 4.5 rebounds per game have rounded out the team's starting lineup. As Saint Joseph's prepares to face New Mexico, its ability to adapt to different opponents and game situations will be crucial, particularly given its recent loss to VCU on March 14, where it fell 64-77.
Averaging 12.8 points per game, 's presence in the paint has been crucial for New Mexico, with his 10.4 rebounds per game leading the team. The team's leading scorer, with 15.9 points per game, is , whose 3.2 rebounds and 1.7 assists per game have been vital in New Mexico's push for a strong season finish. His 45% three-point shooting has also been a key factor in the team's success. With a 25-10 overall record and 13-7 in the Mountain West conference, New Mexico has shown resilience, particularly in their last five games, where they have secured wins against George Washington and Sam Houston.
His ability to score and rebound has made Tomislav Buljan a dominant force, and with contributing 12.1 points per game, New Mexico has a strong offensive core. 's 10.8 points per game and 's 8.0 points per game have also been essential in the team's recent form, which includes a 107-83 win over Sam Houston and a 93-77 victory over San José State. Averaging 2.9 assists per game, Deyton Albury, Uriah Tenette, and Luke Haupt have formed a solid supporting cast, helping to drive New Mexico's offense and set up scoring opportunities for their teammates.
Key Matchups
The matchup between Derek Simpson and Jake Hall will be pivotal in determining the outcome of this game. Simpson, a versatile guard, poses a significant threat with his ability to score, rebound, and distribute the ball, averaging 13.8 points, 5.3 rebounds, and 5.2 assists per game. Hall, on the other hand, is a scoring specialist, with 15.9 points per game, but his limited rebounding and playmaking abilities may be exposed by Simpson's well-rounded skillset. If Simpson can exploit Hall's defensive limitations and outmaneuver him on the perimeter, it could create opportunities for Saint Joseph's to dictate the tempo of the game.
The contrast in styles between Simpson and Hall makes this individual matchup particularly intriguing. While Hall relies heavily on his scoring prowess, Simpson's adaptability and court vision may allow him to control the flow of the game. If Simpson can successfully navigate the defensive attention likely to be focused on him, he may be able to create scoring chances not only for himself but also for his teammates, potentially giving Saint Joseph's a decisive edge. The outcome of this head-to-head battle will likely have a significant impact on the overall trajectory of the game.
CHD Scout Prediction
Saint Joseph's
68
New Mexico
79
The model's prediction of a New Mexico victory, 79-68, with an 82.8% win probability, is a forecast I agree with. Given the significant disparity in NET rankings, with New Mexico at 46 and Saint Joseph's at 121, it is reasonable to expect the Lobos to emerge victorious. Specifically, the difference in NET rankings suggests that New Mexico has performed substantially better against their schedule, which leads me to believe they have the overall strength and quality to overcome Saint Joseph's and secure a win.
Tournament Stakes
This matchup carries significantly different implications for postseason positioning between the two teams. For New Mexico, a win would bolster their NCAA Tournament resume, particularly as a Quad 1 opportunity at home, while a loss would be a Quad 2 setback, potentially damaging their at-large chances. Conversely, Saint Joseph's, whose only path to the NCAA Tournament is by winning their conference tournament, has little to gain in terms of postseason positioning, as a loss would merely reinforce their reliance on the Atlantic 10 auto-bid, and a win, although a notable upset, would still leave them well outside the at-large conversation, given their Quad 3 opportunity on the road. With New Mexico's postseason fate hanging precariously in the balance, a loss to a sub-100 NET team like Saint Joseph's would be a crippling blow to their bubble hopes.