The Tennessee State Tigers, also known as TSU, and the Iowa State Cyclones will face off at the Enterprise Center on March 20, a neutral site that will host a pivotal matchup between two teams with distinct postseason aspirations. For TSU, this game is a chance to bolster their momentum heading into their conference tournament, where they will need to secure the automatic bid to advance to the NCAA Tournament. Meanwhile, Iowa State, or ISU, is looking to rebound from a narrow loss to Arizona and solidify their positioning in the conference standings.
As the Cyclones and Tigers take to the court, the contrast in their postseason trajectories will be palpable. ISU, with a strong resume and high NET ranking, is poised to make a deep run in the NCAA Tournament, while TSU's path is more straightforward: win their conference tournament or miss out on the Big Dance. Despite the difference in their overall profiles, this game promises to be closely contested, with the outcome hanging in the balance of small margins and key performances. The Enterprise Center will provide a neutral backdrop for these two teams to clash, each seeking to prove themselves against a formidable opponent and make a statement in their respective conference races.
Averaging 17.5 points per game, 's scoring has been crucial to Tennessee State's success, with the team posting a 23-9 overall record and a 15-5 mark in the OVC. His 5.5 rebounds and 2.9 assists per game have also made him a versatile threat, complemented by 's 17.3 points per game, which has been a key factor in the team's recent winning streak. With five consecutive victories, including a 93-67 win over Morehead State on March 7 and a 68-55 win over UT Martin on March 6, Tennessee State is riding a wave of momentum into its upcoming game.
The team's leading scorer, supported by 's 11.4 points, 3.5 rebounds, and 4.7 assists per game, has helped Tennessee State dominate opponents, as seen in its 67-42 win at UT Martin on February 28 and its 79-71 win at Southeast Missouri State on February 26. His 45% three-point shooting has been a significant asset, while 's 9.9 points and 5.0 rebounds per game have provided additional scoring punch, and 's 6.3 rebounds per game have helped control the boards, with his 6.0 points per game offering further support to the team's offense.
Averaging 17.1 points per game, 's scoring prowess will be a key factor in Iowa State's matchup against Tennessee State. The team's leading scorer, backed by 's 16.9 points and 7.6 rebounds per game, has propelled Iowa State to a 27-7 record and a NET ranking of #6. His 45% three-point shooting has been a significant asset, and Iowa State will look to utilize this strength to their advantage. With a strong recent record, including wins over Texas Tech and Arizona State, Iowa State is poised to make a deep run in the tournament.
In their last five games, Iowa State has shown resilience, bouncing back from losses to Arizona with decisive victories over Texas Tech and Arizona State. 's 5.0 assists per game have been instrumental in facilitating the team's offense, while 's 5.7 rebounds per game have provided a boost on the glass. 's 2.2 assists per game have also contributed to the team's overall cohesion, and his ability to score from multiple levels will be important in creating matchup problems for Tennessee State. As Iowa State prepares to face Tennessee State, they will look to leverage these strengths to secure a win.
Key Matchups
The matchup between Dante Harris of Tennessee State and Tamin Lipsey of Iowa State will be pivotal in determining the outcome of this game. As the primary playmakers for their respective teams, their ability to create scoring opportunities and dictate the tempo of the game will be crucial. Harris's 4.7 assists per game and Lipsey's 5.0 assists per game indicate that both players are capable of controlling the flow of the offense, making their head-to-head battle a key factor in the game's outcome.
The contrast between Harris's scoring ability and Lipsey's more well-rounded game will be an interesting dynamic to watch. If Harris can outscore Lipsey and maintain his high level of playmaking, Tennessee State may be able to gain an advantage. Conversely, if Lipsey can use his versatility to outmaneuver Harris and limit his scoring opportunities, Iowa State may be able to gain the upper hand. The outcome of this individual matchup will likely have a significant impact on the team's overall performance and ultimately decide the game.
CHD Scout Prediction
Tennessee State
71
Iowa State
78
Based on the data, the model predicts Iowa State to win 78-71 with a 72.0% win probability. I agree with this assessment, as the significant disparity in NET rankings between the two teams suggests a considerable gap in overall quality. Specifically, Iowa State's NET ranking of #6 indicates a substantially stronger resume than Tennessee State's #172 ranking, which leads me to believe that the Cyclones' superior talent and depth will ultimately prove too much for the Tigers to overcome, resulting in an Iowa State victory.
Tournament Stakes
As the season nears its close, this matchup holds differing levels of significance for each team's postseason aspirations. For Iowa State, a win would bolster their already strong NCAA Tournament resume, potentially solidifying a favorable seeding position, while a loss could introduce some volatility into their quad one record, currently standing at 8-7. Given that this game is a Quad 1 opportunity for Tennessee State but a lower-tier Quad 4 game for Iowa State, the Cyclones' margin for error remains relatively wide, with their impressive Quad 2 record serving as a cushion. Meanwhile, Tennessee State's postseason hopes remain squarely tied to their conference tournament performance, rendering this game more of a measuring stick than a resume-builder. Ultimately, Iowa State's ability to navigate this potential trap game will be a crucial test of their focus and resolve ahead of the tournament.