The Troy University Trojans and the University of Nebraska-Lincoln Cornhuskers are set to face off at the Paycom Center, a neutral site, on March 19. This matchup brings together two teams with distinct postseason trajectories, as Nebraska looks to bolster its NCAA Tournament resume, while Troy's only path to the big dance is by securing the Sun Belt Conference's automatic bid. With the Cornhuskers holding a significant edge in the national rankings, this game presents an opportunity for them to reaffirm their position among the top teams in the country.
As the teams take to the court, the implications of this game will be closely watched, particularly in the context of Nebraska's conference race and postseason positioning. The Cornhuskers, having recently suffered a loss to Purdue, will look to get back on track and solidify their standing in the highly competitive Big Ten. Meanwhile, Troy, having won four of its last five games, including a convincing victory over Georgia Southern, will aim to pull off an upset and build momentum ahead of its conference tournament. The small margins that separate these evenly matched teams will be on full display, as the Huskers' 65.9% win probability suggests a closely contested and potentially thrilling matchup.
Averaging 14.9 points per game, and have been crucial to Troy's success, with the team posting a 22-11 overall record and a 12-6 mark in the Sun Belt Conference. His 4.6 assists per game have made Victor Valdes a key facilitator, while Thomas Dowd's 10.3 rebounds per game have been vital on the glass. The team's recent form has been impressive, with wins in four of their last five games, including a 77-61 victory over Georgia Southern on March 9 and a 78-70 win over Southern Miss on March 8.
With his 45% three-point shooting, has provided a significant scoring boost, averaging 13.1 points per game, and his 4.1 assists per game have also been important. The team's leading scorer is matched by the contributions of Thomas Dowd, whose 14.9 points per game have been complemented by 10.3 rebounds per game. Meanwhile, Theo Seng's 5.9 rebounds per game have been supported by his 13.0 points per game, and 's 9.0 points per game have rounded out the team's offense, setting Troy up for a challenging matchup against Nebraska.
Averaging 17.8 points per game, has been the team's leading scorer, with his consistent output a key factor in Nebraska's success. His 4.8 rebounds per game also demonstrate his ability to contribute in multiple facets of the game. The team's recent form has been somewhat inconsistent, with losses to Purdue and UCLA in their last five games, although they have also secured impressive wins over Iowa and USC, with scores of 84-75 and 82-67, respectively. With a record of 26-6, Nebraska has established itself as a formidable opponent, boasting a strong 15-5 record in the Big Ten conference.
The team's backcourt has been bolstered by the play of , who is averaging 4.0 assists per game, and , whose 4.3 assists per game have been crucial in facilitating the team's offense. 's 5.8 rebounds per game have also been vital in securing possession and limiting opponents' scoring opportunities. His 13.5 points per game, combined with 's 11.6 points per game, have given Nebraska a balanced attack, with multiple players capable of making significant contributions on any given night. With their strong overall record and impressive performances against high-quality opponents, Nebraska will be a tough test for Troy.
The matchup between Thomas Dowd and Rienk Mast will be pivotal in determining the outcome of this game. Dowd's ability to dominate the glass, averaging 10.3 rebounds per game, will be tested by Mast's own rebounding prowess, with the Nebraska big man averaging 5.8 rebounds per contest. If Dowd can assert his dominance on the boards, it could limit Nebraska's second-chance opportunities and give Troy a significant advantage in terms of possessions and scoring chances.
Mast, however, is more than just a rebounder, and his scoring ability will also be a key factor in this matchup. With Dowd tasked with defending him, Mast's 13.5 points per game average will be put to the test. If Mast can find ways to score effectively against Dowd, it could force Troy to adjust its defensive strategy, potentially creating opportunities for other Nebraska players to get involved in the offense. Conversely, if Dowd can shut down Mast, it could stifle Nebraska's attack and give Troy a decisive edge.
CHD Scout Prediction
Troy
72
Nebraska
76
The model's prediction of a 76-72 Nebraska victory, with a 65.9% win probability, is a forecast I agree with. Given the significant disparity in NET rankings, with Nebraska sitting at 14 and Troy at 125, it is reasonable to expect the Cornhuskers to emerge victorious. A specific reason for this pick is the substantial gap in overall team quality, as evidenced by the NET rankings, which suggests that Nebraska's superior strength and depth will ultimately prove too much for Troy to overcome in this neutral-site contest.
As the regular season winds down, this matchup holds varying levels of significance for each team's postseason aspirations. For Nebraska, a projected NCAA Tournament team, a win would bolster their already impressive resume, adding to their Quad 1 and Quad 2 wins, which could potentially influence their seeding in the tournament. A loss, however, would be a Quad 3 defeat, which might not significantly harm their at-large chances but could impact their overall seeding. On the other hand, Troy's postseason hopes are tied to winning their conference tournament, and while a win against Nebraska would be a notable Quad 1 victory, it would not substantially alter their at-large prospects, which are virtually nonexistent. Ultimately, Nebraska's postseason trajectory is more closely tied to their performance in this game, and a loss would be a missed opportunity to solidify their tournament standing, underscoring the notion that a team of their caliber should not be losing to a opponent like Troy.