The United States Naval Academy Midshipmen, or Navy, travels to Winston-Salem to face the Wake Forest Demon Deacons at the Lawrence Joel Veterans Memorial Coliseum on March 18. This matchup holds significant implications for both teams, as Navy seeks to bolster its position in the Patriot League and Wake Forest aims to strengthen its case for postseason consideration. With Navy's recent 4-1 record and Wake Forest's 3-2 mark over their last five games, both teams are looking to regain momentum after suffering losses in their most recent outings.
The margin between these evenly matched teams is slim, with the model prediction favoring Navy by a mere four points. As Wake Forest teeters on the fringe of the bubble, a win against Navy could be crucial in bolstering its resume. Conversely, Navy's focus remains fixed on the Patriot League tournament, its only viable path to the NCAA Tournament. The Demon Deacons and Navy will clash in a game where small margins could have a significant impact on their respective seasons, making this contest an intriguing matchup for a national audience.
Averaging 18.5 points per game, has been the team's leading scorer, with his 4.5 assists per game also contributing to Navy's success. The team's overall record of 26-7, including a 17-1 mark in the Patriot League, is a testament to the cohesive unit they have formed. His 3.5 rebounds per game are complemented by 's 11.0 rebounds per game, making them a formidable duo on the court. With a NET ranking of #137, Navy has shown they can compete against a variety of opponents, although their 0-1 record in Quad 1 games and 0-2 record in Quad 2 games suggest they still have work to do against elite competition.
In recent games, Navy has shown resilience, with 's 10.1 points per game and 's 8.3 points per game helping to drive their offense. His 45% three-point shooting is not explicitly mentioned, but Jinwoo Kim's overall scoring ability has been crucial in their last five games, which included a loss to Boston University and wins over Bucknell, Colgate, Loyola Maryland, and Army. 's 7.1 points per game have also been a valuable contribution, and with Aidan Kehoe's consistent rebounding and Austin Benigni's scoring prowess, Navy will look to these key players to step up against Wake Forest.
Averaging 21.3 points per game, has been the team's leading scorer, and his 6.5 rebounds per game have been crucial in Wake Forest's recent performances. The team's record stands at 17-16, with a 7-11 mark in the ACC, and their NET ranking is 66. His 45% three-point shooting has also been a key factor in the team's offense, which has shown glimpses of brilliance in wins like the 95-89 victory at Virginia Tech. With a 1-10 record against Quad 1 opponents, Wake Forest has struggled against elite teams, but they have fared better against lower-tier opponents.
The team's recent form has been marked by inconsistency, with losses to Clemson and Virginia in their last five games, but wins over California and Syracuse have shown that they can compete against a variety of opponents. , with his 11.6 points per game, and , who averages 10.8 points and 5.6 rebounds per game, have been important contributors to the team's offense, while Nate Calmese has provided 10.5 points and 4.5 assists per game. 's 7.7 points per game have also been a valuable addition to the team's scoring depth, and his ability to score in key situations has been important in Wake Forest's wins.
Key Matchups
The matchup between Navy's Aidan Kehoe and Wake Forest's Tre'Von Spillers will be pivotal in determining the outcome of this game. Kehoe, a dominant force on the glass, will face a stern test in Spillers, who has shown the ability to hold his own on the boards. If Kehoe can outmuscle Spillers and secure a significant rebounding advantage, it could give Navy a crucial edge in terms of second-chance opportunities and limiting Wake Forest's fast-break chances.
The contrast in styles between Kehoe and Spillers adds an extra layer of intrigue to this matchup. Kehoe's high-post skills and ability to facilitate for his teammates will be countered by Spillers's athleticism and defensive versatility. If Spillers can effectively contain Kehoe and limit his scoring opportunities, Wake Forest may be able to dictate the tempo of the game and exploit Navy's other matchups. Conversely, if Kehoe can assert himself and control the paint, Navy may be able to establish a rhythm that allows them to stay competitive on the road.
CHD Scout Prediction
Navy
76
Wake Forest
72
Based on the model's prediction, which favors Navy 76-72 with a 62.0% win probability, I disagree and believe Wake Forest will emerge victorious. The primary reason for my dissenting opinion is the significant disparity in NCAA Evaluation Tool (NET) rankings between the two teams, with Wake Forest holding a substantial advantage at #66 compared to Navy's #137. This suggests that Wake Forest has performed better against a stronger schedule, which I believe will give them the edge they need to secure a win over Navy.
Tournament Stakes
For Wake Forest, a win over Navy would be a valuable addition to their postseason resume, as it would improve their Quad 2 record and provide a much-needed boost to their NET ranking, potentially strengthening their at-large bid case. Conversely, a loss would be a Quad 3 defeat, which could hinder their chances of securing a spot in the NCAA Tournament. On the other hand, Navy's postseason aspirations are not tied to their at-large credentials, as their only path to the tournament is through winning the PAT conference tournament auto-bid. As Wake Forest navigates the bubble, every game takes on added significance, and a victory in this contest would help mitigate the damage from their 1-10 Quad 1 record, but ultimately, Wake Forest's tournament hopes will likely hinge on their ability to avoid damaging losses, rather than accumulating marginal wins like this one.