The Wichita State Shockers and the University of Tulsa Golden Hurricane are set to face off at the Reynolds Center on March 24, in a matchup that carries significant implications for the American Athletic Conference race. As the regular season draws to a close, both teams find themselves deadlocked in the conference standings, making this encounter a crucial one for postseason positioning. With Wichita State's only path to the NCAA Tournament being the automatic bid awarded to the AAC tournament champion, a win here would be a vital step towards that goal.
For Tulsa, a victory would not only bolster their conference standing but also strengthen their case for an at-large bid to the NCAA Tournament, as they currently reside on the bubble. The Golden Hurricane's recent form has been impressive, with four wins in their last five outings, and they will look to capitalize on their home-court advantage to edge out their opponents. The model prediction suggests a narrow Tulsa win, 78-75, with the home team holding a 60.9% win probability. Given the small margins that separate these evenly matched teams, this game promises to be a tightly contested and intriguing affair, with the outcome hanging precariously in the balance.
Averaging 19.6 points per game, the team's leading scorer is supported by a well-rounded cast, including , whose 5.9 rebounds per game have been crucial in securing victories. With a 23-11 overall record and 13-5 mark in the American Athletic Conference, Wichita State has demonstrated an ability to compete against a variety of opponents. His 45% three-point shooting has been a notable aspect of ' game, making him a formidable threat from beyond the arc. The team's recent form has been encouraging, with wins in four of their last five games, including a 96-70 triumph at Oklahoma State and an 81-68 victory over Tulsa.
The presence of , who is averaging 8.0 rebounds per game, has been a significant factor in Wichita State's success, providing a strong interior presence alongside , whose 5.0 rebounds per game have been valuable. With contributing 2.4 assists per game, the team has been able to maintain a balanced attack, which has been on display in their recent victories, including a 74-70 win over Wyoming. As the team prepares to face Tulsa, the experience and production of these key players will be essential in determining the outcome, particularly given the team's recent 81-68 win over the same opponent.
Averaging 14.8 points per game, has been a crucial contributor to Tulsa's offense, with his 4.4 assists per game also making him a key playmaker. The team's leading scorer is not among the top two in points per game, as and are closely matched, with Miles Barnstable averaging 14.5 points per game and David Green averaging 16.2 points per game. His 4.5 rebounds per game make David Green a versatile threat on the court. With a 28-7 overall record and 13-5 mark in the American Athletic Conference, Tulsa has established itself as a formidable opponent, having gone 3-4 against Quad 2 teams and 9-2 against Quad 3 teams.
In recent games, Tulsa has shown its ability to perform under pressure, with wins over UNLV and Stephen F. Austin in its last two outings, following a loss at Wichita State. His 45% three-point shooting is not a notable statistic for any of the mentioned players, but 's 7.2 points per game and 2.2 rebounds per game have provided a spark off the bench, while 's 10.8 points per game and 4.1 rebounds per game have made him a consistent contributor. As the team prepares to face Wichita State, Tylen Riley's 3.8 rebounds per game and Miles Barnstable's 1.5 assists per game will be important factors in determining the outcome, given the team's recent 77-66 win over UNLV and 89-84 win over Stephen F. Austin.
Key Matchups
The matchup between Wichita State's Will Berg and Tulsa's Miles Barnstable will be pivotal in determining the outcome of this game. Berg, a physical presence in the paint, will need to contain Barnstable's scoring ability, which has been a key factor in Tulsa's offense. Barnstable's ability to score from various spots on the court will test Berg's defensive skills, and if Berg can limit his production, it could significantly impact Tulsa's overall scoring output.
Berg's rebounding prowess, averaging 8.0 rebounds per game, will also be crucial in this matchup, as it will be essential to limit Barnstable's opportunities for second-chance points. If Berg can outmuscle Barnstable on the glass and defend him effectively, it could give Wichita State a significant advantage, allowing them to control the tempo of the game and potentially secure a win.
CHD Scout Prediction
Wichita State
75
Tulsa
78
The model predicts a narrow Tulsa victory, 78-75, with a 60.9% win probability. I agree with this assessment, as Tulsa's superior NET ranking of 52, compared to Wichita State's 78, suggests a significant difference in overall team strength. Specifically, the disparity in NET rankings indicates that Tulsa has performed more consistently against high-level opponents, which I believe will give them the edge they need to secure a win in this matchup.
Tournament Stakes
This contest holds significant implications for both teams' postseason aspirations, albeit in distinct ways. For Tulsa, a win would bolster their NCAA Tournament resume, potentially strengthening their at-large case by adding a Quad 2 victory, as this game is classified as such for the Golden Hurricane, while being a Quad 1 opportunity for Wichita State. A Tulsa loss, however, could jeopardize their bubble status, as their Quad 1 record remains unimpressive at 0-1. Meanwhile, Wichita State's only path to the NCAA Tournament remains winning the AAC conference tournament, rendering this game less crucial for their postseason hopes. As the outcome of this matchup will undoubtedly impact the trajectory of Tulsa's season, it is clear that the Golden Hurricane's postseason fate will be significantly influenced by their performance against a Wichita State team that, despite being a lesser threat, is still capable of pulling off a Quad 1 upset, and ultimately, Tulsa's ability to capitalize on this opportunity will be the difference between a promising March and a disappointing one.