The University of Iowa Hawkeyes and the University of Illinois Fighting Illini are set to collide in a winner-takes-all matchup at the Toyota Center in Houston. With the 2023 NCAA Tournament field set, this single-elimination showdown marks the end of the line for one of these two storied programs. The stakes are clear: a loss will send a program home for the season, while victory will propel the winner one step closer to the Final Four. The Hawkeyes and Fighting Illini have navigated the tournament's early rounds with varying degrees of success, but now face the ultimate test of survival.
As the Elite Eight unfolds, the Hawkeyes and Fighting Illini will each leave everything on the floor. A win would secure a coveted spot in the Final Four, with the national championship within reach. The teams' recent form suggests that both have the momentum to carry them through this critical test. Iowa has claimed four of its last five games, including a 77-71 victory over Nebraska, while Illinois has also been on a roll, dispatching Houston 65-55 in its most recent outing. The stage is set for a gripping battle between two teams with everything to lose and everything to gain.
The Iowa Hawkeyes enter their matchup against Illinois with a 23-12 overall record and a 10-10 mark in the Big Ten Conference, sitting at No. 27 in the NET rankings. Averaging 77 points per game over their last five contests, the team has shown a steady level of scoring production. Their most recent results have been mixed, with a narrow 77-71 win at Nebraska and a 73-72 victory at Florida offset by a 69-72 loss at Ohio State. In the midst of this stretch, the Hawkeyes also secured a convincing 75-64 win over Maryland.
Leading the team in scoring is , who has averaged 19.6 points per game this season. has chipped in 7.7 points per game, while contributes 6.6 points and 4.5 rebounds per contest. The team's possession-based offense has been fueled by Stirtz's 4.4 assists per game, with providing additional support with 2.2 assists per contest. Iowa's ability to adapt to different opponents and environments will be crucial as they face a challenging Illinois squad.
The Illinois Fighting Illini have established themselves as a formidable force in the Big Ten Conference, boasting a 27-8 overall record and a 15-5 mark within the league. Their NCAA NET ranking of #8 underscores their impressive performance. On the road to this success, they have notched a strong Quad 2 record, with a perfect 5-0 mark against opponents from that tier. Their Quad 1 record, however, has been less convincing, with a 7-8 mark against the best of the best.
The Fighting Illini have shown flashes of brilliance in their recent games. A 65-55 win at Houston on March 26 showcased their ability to execute on the road, while a 76-55 triumph over VCU on March 21 demonstrated their scoring prowess. They have also been able to dominate at home, as evidenced by their 105-70 drubbing of Pennsylvania on March 19. Averaging 17.5 points per game, has emerged as the team's leading scorer, with his supporting cast including (13.4 PPG) and (13.3 PPG, 8.0 RPG). His 45% three-point shooting has been a valuable asset, while David Mirkovic's 2.6 assists per game have added a crucial dimension to the team's offense.
The pivotal matchup in Saturday's showdown between Iowa and Illinois will unfold in the paint, where the Hawkeyes' Alvaro Folgueiras will face off against the Fighting Illini's David Mirkovic. Folgueiras has been a steady contributor for Iowa, averaging 8.4 points and 3.6 rebounds per game, while also chipping in 2.2 assists per contest. However, Mirkovic presents a more formidable challenge, with his impressive 13.3 points and 8.0 rebounds per game making him a dominant force in the paint. The battle between these two big men will be crucial, as it could determine which team gains a significant advantage on the glass and in the post.
The contrast in their playing styles will be on full display, with Folgueiras relying on his agility and shooting range to create scoring opportunities, while Mirkovic uses his size and strength to control the boards and score in the paint. If Folgueiras can find a way to contain Mirkovic and limit his rebounding opportunities, Iowa may be able to stay competitive, but if Mirkovic can establish himself as a force in the paint, Illinois may be able to assert its dominance and dictate the tempo of the game.
CHD Scout Prediction
Iowa
71
Illinois
76
Given the Illinois model prediction of 76-71 in favor of the Illini with a 66.0% win probability, I agree with this assessment. While Iowa has had a strong season, I believe their NET ranking (#27) is a more accurate reflection of their overall strength compared to Illinois' (#8). In the high-stakes environment of an Elite Eight game, where a single loss sends a team home and all but eliminates their March Madness hopes, I believe Illinois' superior ranking will give them a crucial edge.
As the Iowa and Illinois men's basketball teams take the court in the NCAA Tournament Elite Eight, the stakes are nothing short of all-or-nothing. The winner will secure a spot in the Final Four, setting the stage for a historic run that could culminate in a national championship. Conversely, the loser will see their season come to a premature end, potentially marking the final game for seniors like and Keaton Wagler. For Illinois, advancing would represent a major milestone in a season that has already seen the program return to the Final Four for the first time since 2005. In contrast, Iowa's Cinderella story has already been remarkable, and a win here would validate a season that has exceeded expectations. In the end, only one team will be left standing, and for the Hawkeyes, a victory would be a testament to their resilience and determination.