How Picks Are Generated
The CHD Scout model compares its own predicted spread and total to the current Vegas lines for every Division I game. When the model disagrees with the market by a meaningful margin, it identifies an “edge” and generates a pick. Picks are ranked by confidence tier—high confidence means a large predicted edge, while low confidence indicates a smaller disagreement with the market.
Each pick card shows the model's predicted line, the current market line, the calculated edge percentage, and a confidence rating. The performance dashboard tracks historical results across all pick types (moneyline, spread, over/under) so you can evaluate the model's track record transparently. All picks are for informational purposes only—see our full disclaimer.
FAQ
Are these picks guaranteed to win?
No. The CHD Scout model maintains approximately 76% accuracy on winner predictions, but individual games are inherently uncertain. High-confidence picks perform better historically (85%+), while true toss-up games hover around 55%. Picks are for informational and entertainment purposes only.
How is the betting edge calculated?
Edge is the difference between the model's predicted line and the current market (Vegas) line. For example, if the model predicts Team A -7.5 but Vegas has Team A -4.5, the edge is 3 points. Larger edges historically correlate with higher win rates because the model sees a larger disagreement with the market.
Data sourced from ESPN. Predictions by the CHD Scout model. Methodology | Accuracy Record
