What are the Four Factors of basketball?

The Four Factors, developed by Dean Oliver, are effective field goal percentage (eFG%), turnover rate (TO%), offensive rebounding percentage (ORB%), and free throw rate (FTR). These four factors explain roughly 90% of the variance in team offensive and defensive efficiency.

Why is effective field goal percentage the most important factor?

Effective field goal percentage (eFG%) accounts for the extra value of three-point shots by weighting them 1.5x. It is the single most predictive factor of team success, explaining about 40% of the variance in efficiency. Teams that shoot well from the field consistently outperform teams that rely on the other three factors.

How is turnover rate calculated in basketball analytics?

Turnover rate (TO%) is calculated as turnovers divided by possessions (approximated as field goal attempts + 0.475 * free throw attempts + turnovers). A lower offensive TO% is better, while a higher defensive TO% means the team forces more turnovers.

What is free throw rate and why does it matter?

Free throw rate (FTR) is the ratio of free throw attempts to field goal attempts. It captures a team's ability to get to the foul line on offense and prevent opponents from getting there on defense. While the least impactful of the four factors, aggressive teams that draw fouls create easy scoring opportunities.

College Basketball Four Factors

The four stats that predict winning in college basketball — effective field goal percentage, turnover rate, offensive rebounding, and free throw rate for all 362 D1 teams.

The Four Factors

Visualizing eFG%, turnover rate, offensive rebounding, and free throw rate for every D1 team — the four stats that explain 90% of team efficiency in college basketball.

Effective FG%

Shot SuppressionElite

Below AvgShooting Team

Turnover Rate

Forces TurnoversElite

Below AvgBall Security

Rebounding %

Defensive BoardsElite

Below AvgOffensive Boards

Free Throw Rate

FT PreventionElite

Below AvgFoul Drawing

College Basketball Analytics Glossary

A complete reference to the efficiency ratings, Four Factors, and advanced metrics used to evaluate NCAA Division I basketball teams. Every stat on this page is calculated from play-by-play box score data, adjusted for opponent quality and schedule strength, and updated throughout the season. Select a category below to explore how each metric is calculated and what the benchmark values mean.

Effective Field Goal Percentage (eFG%)

(FGM + 0.5 × 3PM) / FGA

eFG% adjusts traditional field goal percentage to account for the extra value of three-pointers. A made three is worth 50% more than a made two, so this formula weights them accordingly. eFG% is the single most important of the Four Factors, explaining roughly 40% of the variance in team efficiency. An eFG% above 54% is excellent; below 47% is a significant liability. Both offensive and defensive eFG% are tracked — elite defensive teams hold opponents below 47%.

Turnover Rate (TO%)

Turnovers / (FGA + 0.44 × FTA + TO)

Turnover rate measures turnovers as a percentage of possessions used, not raw turnover count. This matters because a team running 75 possessions per game will naturally have more turnovers than one running 62 — TO% normalizes for pace. Every turnover eliminates a scoring opportunity entirely, making ball security the second most impactful factor. The best ball-handling teams keep their offensive TO% below 16%; defensively, elite teams force opponents above 22%.

Offensive Rebound Percentage (ORB%)

Offensive Rebounds / (Offensive Rebounds + Opponent Defensive Rebounds)

ORB% measures the share of available offensive rebounds a team secures. Unlike raw offensive rebound totals, this percentage accounts for the total number of rebounding opportunities. An offensive rebound extends a possession and often leads to a high-percentage putback attempt. Teams with an ORB% above 35% are elite on the offensive glass; defensively, limiting opponents below 25% ORB% closes out possessions effectively.

Free Throw Rate (FTR)

Free Throw Attempts / Field Goal Attempts

Free throw rate measures how often a team gets to the foul line relative to the number of shots it takes. Aggressive, paint-attacking offenses generate high FTR values (above 38%), producing efficient scoring opportunities from the line. Defensively, teams that avoid fouling and keep opponent FTR below 28% gain a meaningful edge. While the least weighted of the Four Factors, free throws often decide close games — and drawing fouls disrupts defensive rhythm.