Wins Above Bubble (WAB)
(Q1W – Q1G×0.30) + (Q2W – Q2G×0.55) + (Q3W – Q3G×0.85) + (Q4W – Q4G×0.95)
WAB measures how many more wins a team has earned compared to what a hypothetical bubble team (one sitting right on the tournament cut line) would have won against the same schedule. It weights each game by quad — beating a Q1 opponent is worth far more than beating a Q4 opponent because a bubble team would only be expected to win 30% of Q1 games but 95% of Q4 games. A WAB above +5 generally indicates a tournament-caliber team; above +10 signals a top seed.
Luck Rating
Actual win% minus Pythagorean expected win%
Luck quantifies the gap between a team’s actual winning percentage and the winning percentage predicted by its efficiency margin using the Pythagorean expectation formula. A positive Luck value means the team has won more games than its point differential suggests — often due to success in close games or overtime. A negative value means the team has underperformed its efficiency. Over time, Luck tends to regress toward zero, making it a useful indicator for predicting whether a team’s record will improve or decline.